All the talk was about the ride on GIGA KICK in Saturday’s G1 The Goodwood but how about the ride on RESERVE BANK?
GIGA KICK looked pitched in at the weights and punters sent him to the barriers as the $2.10 favourite.
The 2022 Everest winner (2nd in 2024) was resuming off a lengthy spell and drew a wide gate in The Goodwood.
Going into Saturday’s feature, he had 5 first-up runs to his name – all over 1000m bar one, which was 1100m. This was his first attempt resuming at 1200m.
Most horses that draw wide first-up, tend to go back. The last time I looked, 73% of horses that drew gate 10 or wider when resuming, settled in the last 25% of the field. In addition to this, horses that sit 8L or more off the leader at the 800, have a winning strike rate of less than 5%.
Given GIGA KICK was resuming at 1200m for the first time, and given he was gutted first-up in a previous prep when going too hard, it was almost impossible to see Mark Zahra going forward and risk a repeat of what happened at Moonee Valley in September 2023. Any decent form student should have accepted the laws of probability leant heavily in favour of GIGA KICK being ridden cold.
Taking $2.10 about a horse that is entering new territory (first-up 1200m) is risky. Add to that, he’s likely to go back in what presented as a slowly run race, and you’ve got yourself a lay not a bet.
GIGA KICK clocked the best last 200m of the day but even that could only grab him 3rd. RESERVE BANK conceded similar start at the 600m but was able to accelerate sooner when the field fanned presenting his jockey Jamie Melham with a sizeable gap to punch through. Instead of getting caught up in the obsession of being the widest, Melham took the opportunity to get her horse’s momentum up while her rivals were still looking for runs. The overall time is somewhat irrelevant because the tempo was 4L below standard. But RESERVE BANK’s last 600m was 10L above standard and he is really on that upward spiral. Hopefully some of you backed him and BARBER, both were our best bets for the weekend, BARBER when he was $13 and RESERVE BANK at $8. Enough patting myself on the back, let’s have a look at how Proven’s week went.
It started on Wednesday at Wyong with a drifting INDEFENSIBLE missing a place in a Maiden over 1100m. It was the fastest run race of the day relative to benchmarks and she simply wasn’t ready for it first-up and resented the heavy surface. She might need one more run to bring her to her peak.
I’m a big fan of ELVINA who was too dour to win her Class 1 1600m contest at Canberra on Friday. At no point during the race did she run the fastest split and she is now desperately looking for 2000m. She could win a better quality race than this if she goes up in trip. She might be one at a price next start?
I thought ACCREDITED did a terrific job in unsuitable conditions in the Listed Takeover Target Stakes (1200m). He finished 5th beaten less than 1L after a slightly checkered path in the Gosford feature. He’s shown us in the past he races best on top of the ground and if the guys can find firm footing this winter, he’ll be winning stakes races for sure.
Speaking of checkered paths, KING’S SECRET copped one at Kembla on Saturday. After busting the maiden at his previous start, the brother to G1 winner PRIVATE EYE, was held up in the straight before getting beaten a lip over 1000m. They broke standard time for the Class 1 and he clocked the best last 200m of the race. Stick with him.
COLUMBIA BLUE clocked the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day at Kembla when he finished 2nd in a Maiden over 1000m. Again, the winner ran quick time and I think the first two across the line are worth following.
They specked MIND BENDER in betting but she wasn’t good enough in the Maiden Handicap over 1200m. MOTHER GOOSE won and beat standard time by 2L. Perhaps a task a little off Broadway could see MIND BENDER more competitive.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.