PRIVATE EYE will need to overcome a wide draw if he is to defend his crown in the $1million Shorts (1100m) at Randwick on Saturday as he attempts to force his way into The Everest for a third consecutive year.
Drawing a barrier has proven elusive for PRIVATE EYE, having started closer to the outside than the inside in eight of his last nine starts.
In his favour on Saturday is an attractive weight in a race that has abundant speed on paper. Trainer Joe Pride is confident that if the gelding can find cover for the first 600m, he will be hard to hold out.
Also running for Proven at Randwick will be progressive 4yo FLYING BANDIT in the 1600m Midway for Kerry Parker. The son of TRAPEZE ARTIST has won twice and finished a narrow second in just four career starts and the Randwick mile looks tailor made for him second-up.
Meanwhile, Melbourne Cup weights were released this week with defending champ WITHOUT A FIGHT at the top of the list that shows three horses already qualified for the big one.
With 58.5kg, WITHOUT A FIGHT will carry just 1kg below weight-for-age. International runners THE GREY WIZARD and MAGICAL ZOE are already in the race for winning qualifiers abroad. They’ll carry 53kg and 52.5kg respectively while POINT KING was allotted just 50.5kg and that weight caught the eye of our resident times analyst, Nic Ashman.
“POINT KING for mine is the best weighted horse in the field. He has 50.5kg, which is 9kg than what he should carry at WFA,” Ashman said before discussing the key to nailing the modern day Cup winner.
“When I look at ratings for horses from one prep to another, clearly the biggest change is autumn to spring.
“And its not because they turn 1-year older on August 1. It’s because they finish their prep in April and return 4 months later in August whereas over summer they’re done by late October or November and resume in February around 3 months later.
“A horse’s ratings are more likely to hold over a summer break than winter break.”
Ashman admits “not every system lasts forever” and reminds us “you have to be dynamic in your approach, move with the trends” but is adamant what he discovered above with winter breaks has a significant impact on recent results of the Melbourne Cup.
“The European dominance over the last 2 decades has taught us one thing – you need to be racing in winter,” he said.
“Since 2016, the European winners – ALMANDIN, REKINDLING, CROSS COUNTER and TWILIGHT PAYMENT all raced during our winter before going abroad.
“And 3 of the 4 the Aussie winners since then – VOW AND DECLARE, GOLD TRIP and WITHOUT A FIGHT raced in either June or July maintaining residual fitness for their spring campaign.”
For Ashman’s full article including early selections CLICK HERE.
On Sunday September 29 we will be hosting our inaugural Matt Hoysted open morning at his Eagle Farm stables from 9.45am. An e-brochure outlining the order of parades will be published online early next week.
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SIRE ON FIRE – EXCEED AND EXCEL
This former top class galloper was the broodmare sire of three stakes winners over the weekend – TRAFFIC WARDEN (G2 Run To The Rose), BELLATRIX STAR (Listed Cap D’Antibes), ARKANSAW KID (G2 Bobbie Lewis Quality) and for good measure he was the broodmare sire of the stakes placed BOLD BASTILLE.
BLACK BOOKER
No black booker this week
BET WITH NIC
Nic’s tips in this article now sit at 13 winners from 18 selections and now he’s found us one at $7.50 in early betting
“I know PERICLES was dominant last start but off peak figures PLACE DU CARROUSEL can beat these. She is a G1 winner in France and has looked pretty good in her workouts ahead of her return this Saturday in the G1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. Because this isn’t her grand final, I think your best bet is to take the $1.90 price about her to run a place. That looks a lock to me.”
Upcoming Proven Thoroughbreds runners
Eagle Farm Friday September 20
BM78 Handicap 1200m
FORTUNEER
Matt Hoysted/Justin Huxtable
Comment: Produced the fastest split of the race between the 600m and 400m last start before being placed. Her last 600m there was 3rd fastest of the day. She looks right in this.
SHOT OF WHISKEY
Matt Hoysted/Justin Stanley
Comment: Didn’t look overly comfortable with a horse laying in on him last start and we expect the drop in weight and hopefully smoother run in transit will see him bounce back. Was going well before that.
Newcastle Friday September 20
G3 Cameron Handicap 1500m
STOCKMAN
Joe Pride/Reece Jones
Comment: Back in the field first-up over 1400m and we expect them to be too sharp for him again here. Would like to see him finishing off and get within 5L of the winner.
Randwick Saturday September 21
G2 The Shorts 1100m
PRIVATE EYE
Joe Pride/Jay Ford
Comment: Late sectionals show he just peaked on his run first-up intimating he was a tad behind where he normally is at that stage of prep. This isn’t uncommon for older geldings and we expect him to improve here. Second-up last spring he was placed in the Everest. A repeat of that just about wins this.
Midway Handicap 1600m
FLYING BANDIT
Kerry Parker/Jay Ford
Comment: Beat the class average for BM68 races at Hawkesbury last start by 3L and produced one of the fastest last 200m of the day indicating he had plenty up the sleeve. Looks destined for better races.
Newcastle Saturday September 21
BM68 Handicap 1300m
ICONIC TREASURE
Joe Pride/Alysha Collett
Comment: His ratings are on an upward spiral with Nic Ashman telling us “he’s improved close to 6L this prep”. This looks an ideal next step for a horse that is going as well as any in our stable.
