None of the four Group 1 races last weekend got the ratings world talking with the support cards at Randwick and Flemington clearly the places for future winners.
The Randwick Guineas looked the best race on paper but rated the worst of the elite level contests. Off a fast tempo, LINEBACKER failed to break standard time meaning he didn’t go that well, rather the rest went poorly. Perhaps the only caveat we can place on this lies within the probability that top level performers BROADSIDING, SWIFTFALCON and AELIANA all having an off day? The more likely reason is that none of them were ready for a fast run Randwick mile coming out of the slowly run Hobartville Stakes over 1400m. Still, this was poor and on these figures none of them can win the G1 George Ryder Stakes. I’d be going straight to the All Aged Stakes with BROADSIDING – fresh 1400m appears to work for him. SWIFTFLACON’s best hope of a G1 lies with the Doncaster Mile where he’s got 49kg but isn’t in the field yet. Winning the Doncaster Prelude would fix that. AELIANA might be better placed in the Rosehill Guineas rather than the Vinery Stud Stakes as she’d have to improve if she wants to beat TREASURETHE MOMENT. The Matt Laurie-trained filly gapped them at Flemington and beat G3 standard time by more than 8L. She is a serious horse and even accounting for the tempo of the All Star Mile, I still think she just about wins that race given her rating in the Kewney Stakes.
JOLIESTAR was solid winning the Newmarket Handicap with bang on average ratings for G1 level. Her challenge will be dodging wet tracks in what is usually a wet autumn in Sydney. Perhaps a trip to Royal Ascot beckons?
TOM KITTEN got the breaks in a slowly run All Star Mile. MR BRIGHTSIDE wanted a faster tempo as he is more capable of running a faster overall time at this distance. Alas, the race morphed into a sprint home and the horse with the best acceleration won. TOM KITTEN was the fastest through every split from the 600m to the post. It was his day.
MIDDLE EARTH won the Australian Cup Prelude over 2000m clocking a faster last 200m than TOM KITTEN, suggesting this import has plenty under the bonnet and could be a genuine G1 WFA galloper.
Circling back to the All Star Mile and I firmly believe this race has lost its identity. It started as a race for the people but, like many races on the calendar, has become just another event for the elite. My suggestion would be to make it a Quality Handicap with a topweight of 62kg and a guaranteed bottom weight of 47kg.
To ensure you have a bottom weight of 47kg you implement the following criteria;
- Horses with a domestic rating of 110+ carry 62kg
- You run 3 x Qualifiers; BM 0-80; BM 0-90; BM 0-100
- The winners and runner-up of each qualifier for the All Star Mile and carry 47kg, 52kg and 57kg respectively
A field of 18 would have 12 of the best in Australia plus 6 “battlers” with serious weight concessions that give them a lightweight chance.
To be fair, I believe something similar should be run every Saturday in metro NSW and Victoria. Obviously for a substantially lesser amount than the $2.5million currently on offer for the All Star Mile. The benchmark system is becoming a mundane product with compressed weights that renders good horses unplaceable if they don’t graduate from the benchmark system after a handful of wins. Getting horses back down in the weights faster is a whole different discussion. For now, lets address the obvious issue which is a drastic decline in turnover. Bookmakers are unanimous that big fields with a large spread in the weights see turnover go up. So why aren’t we doing it?
On the home front, ICONIC TREASURE was clearly below his best at Warwick Farm last Wednesday when finishing 6th placing behind TENDERIZE. Think he is worth a forgive run given his previous consistency.
Both THE BLACK CLOUD and COSMONOVA looked outclassed in the G3 Wenona Girl (1200m) at Randwick on Saturday. That said, it was the race of the day when assessing class relative times. COMMEMORATIVE is hugely progressive with her top three career peak ratings coming at her last three starts. She wouldn’t be out of place in a G1 handicap like The Galaxy. Although both our mares were beaten a touch over 4L, they each finished roughly 1L off the G3 standard telling us in an average year they’re up to this sort of race but have struck a good bunch of mares in 2025.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.