He was fat, woolly and unwanted on course.
While many of you probably think I’m talking about a racing administrator or media pundit, this lead is actually about the rise of KING’S SECRET.
The brother to dual Everest winner PRIVATE EYE has plenty to live up to. A Listed winner last summer who also bagged a pair of Group 3 placings during what proved a tricky autumn to navigate, the now five-year-old looks set for his best preparation yet.
Most of you will know I run a subscription service through my website, thebeatenfavourite.com. We provide Track Reports, Sectionals and a range of punting tools, but by far our most popular product is the Bet Sheets.
Last week I added a bet combining TEMPTED to run Top 2 and KING’S SECRET Top 4 in Saturday’s Concorde Stakes. We got $4.10.
I rarely play Same Race Multis because I think the odds are generally terrible. But this one appealed to me — until I spoke with Tom Walter on Thursday.
“Joe said he’s fat and woolly. Just wait until you see him in the yard — he’s got a stack of improvement to come,” Tommy said, without knowing about my bet.
I nearly emailed the entire subscription base to say that if they hadn’t already put the bet on, they probably shouldn’t.
KING’S SECRET charged home for fourth and the messages started coming in. Happy customers and cash in the account — good times.
But my mind quickly turned back to Tommy’s words: “He’s got a stack of improvement to come.”
And I started thinking about what might be possible for KING’S SECRET this spring.
Being a numbers nerd, I went straight to the clock.
TEMPTED ran 55.6 for the 1000m.
Genuine WTF areas.
For some perspective, only one horse — EDUARDO — has run quicker over the Randwick 1000m in the past six seasons.
Databases lit up afterwards, with some suggesting TEMPTED had run 8-9L inside standard time. That’s because they assessed the performance against the official Good 4 rating.
It wasn’t a Good 4. We had Randwick performing as a Good 3 — and that was possibly the reason PRIVATE EYE didn’t run to his best. More on that later.
And that brings us back to KING’S SECRET.
He was first-up, nowhere near fully wound up and still charged home for fourth in one of the fastest 1000m races we’ve seen at Randwick in years.
The Sydney Stakes on Everest Day looks an obvious target and I’m told his next start will more than likely be The Shorts. If an Everest slot does come his way, it’ll be because he’s won a key lead-up and more than earned his place in the world’s richest turf race.
Longer term, I’d love to see him down the Flemington straight with a view to the Newmarket Handicap next autumn.
Because if Joe is right and there really is “a stack of improvement to come”, KING’S SECRET might be about to make a name for himself rather than simply being known as PRIVATE EYE’s little brother.
PRIVATE EYE failed in the Group 3 Tramway Stakes, finishing seventh and beaten 5.5L by stablemate HEADLEY GRANGE.
The smart punters knew this track was hot. PRIVATE EYE drifted from $3.90 to $5, with the data around his ability to handle bone-dry tracks later in his career not looking so flash.
HEADLEY GRANGE was inside standard time and had to post the third-fastest last 200m of the day to win. He was heavily supported in betting and the clock backed up the market confidence. Could be a big spring ahead for him.
The week began with PROXIMA CENTAURI at Warwick Farm. The mare was on the seven-day back-up for the first time in her career.
In last week’s Sectional Review, we wondered whether 1600-1800m might be the right trip for her at this stage of her preparation. Last Wednesday’s 2200m contest strengthened that view — unless, of course, she simply isn’t a back-up horse.
They went quickly in front, around 5L above standard through the first mile. PROXIMA CENTAURI’s late sections were poor and indicative of a horse that struggled late. I’d be keen to see her back in trip and with more time between runs before making any firm conclusions.
We gave MELTDOWN a bit of a push at $14 in the pre-race report sent out Saturday morning. He mapped to cross and lead over 1400m at the Gold Coast. Despite traditionally lacking the natural pace to lead at this trip, there was a distinct lack of speed in the race — perhaps that’s why he trimmed up to $7?
They let him roll through the first 800m more than 5L below standard. He gave a good yelp and held on for second. No doubt he’ll be better again stepping up to the mile or beyond.
Unfortunately, we got it wrong with HEAD OF THE RIVER at Toowoomba on Saturday night.
She looked a good thing on paper but had to settle for second after sitting on a hot speed and failing to absorb the pressure as well as the market expected.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.