While VIA SISTINA’s back-to-back Cox Plate victories grabbed the headlines around the country, there was another horse that won a few hearts of his own.
Eagle Farm on a Wednesday is a far cry from the amphitheatre that fuels Cox Plate day at The Valley.
But owners of TOWN CRIER were treated to their 6th win in just 19 starts. The son of SPIRIT OF BOOM has a better than 50 per cent place strike rate as well. His $258,250 in prizemoney has been a good return for the $160,000 outlay at the Magic Millions sales. Much like his old man, his ratings have improved with age. His last 1000m in this Class 5 race on Wednesday in a slick 56.6, was the 4th fastest at the meeting. He is another great example of the best asset a horse can have – gate speed.
On the same day, ROCK THE SUNRISE was able to place at his first crack at 1800m. Watching the BM65 contest I expected more from him. But again I was reminded to reserve an opinion until you see the data. The leader went through the first 1200m more than 3L above standard. When a horse goes up in trip to a new distance for the first time, you typically want a moderate or even tempo. That’s because they’re already being asked to sustain a gallop for longer so why tax them even more with a brutal pace. Now, the tempo for ROCK THE SUNRISE wasn’t brutal but it was fast and just enough to see him out. He had the second fastest last 800, 600 and 400m of the race and the third best final 200m. He’ll improve with this and his form would suggest he’s better with some give in the ground.
Fast forward to Saturday and OCEAN ZAR had no luck in a fast run 1600m BM78. She was bustled from the inside gate and then got completely chopped out of a run at the 200m so we’ll never know where she could’ve finished. She’s a mare racing with zest.
I backed SHOT OF WHISKEY at $12 knowing he would lead and our track intel was that the bulk of the winners would be in Lanes 1 to 5. That track intel was spot on with 8 of the 10 winners in those lanes but sadly he got run down in the dying stages of his 1200m contest by odds-on favourite COLOPHON.
Similar to ROCK THE SUNRISE, I was disappointed at first glance watching OTONO in her BM68 contest over the mile at Kembla on Saturday. But again the figures tell the story, albeit this one a little different. She was coming out of a fast run 1800m and switched back to a slowly run 1600m event. She lacked the zip to dash when they sprinted but was strong late clocking the best last 200m of the race.
On the general front, VIA SISTINA won a Cox Plate that rated below average and a far cry from where she was at 12 months ago. I’m quite astounded by how many horses this spring have rated well below their usual mark. All eyes are on BUCKAROO and whether Chris Waller will run him in the Melbourne Cup. Under a week away now, and if you trust the BOM, big IF that, then we’ll be racing on a Heavy surface with a total of up to 40mm forecast across Monday and Tuesday.
Without seeing barriers and speed maps the two horses that catch my eye in this year’s Cup are RIVER OF STARS and PRESAGE NOCTURNE. They finished 2nd and 4th in the Caulfield Cup and have peak ratings on wet ground. After years in the doldrums, the Caulfield Cup has returned as the best guide to Melbourne Cup success with the last three winners all coming through the Caulfield feature. The history around international runners that have a run in Australia before the Melbourne Cup is solid. AMERICAIN, DUNADEN and PROTECTIONIST all had a run down under while some would argue TWILIGHT PAYMENT did as well. That is, if you count a run in the Cup the year prior. Northern hemisphere 3YOs have a terrific record. From 2017 to 2020 they had 2 wins and 2 seconds – and none of them had a run here first. This year there’s one northern hemisphere 3YO – FURTHUR.
Speaking of 3YOs but back on our homeland, two horses you can expect will measure up to good races next autumn are ATTICA and SHANGRI LA BOY. They quinella’d the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) on Saturday, smashing standard time by 4L. ATTICA gave Joe Pride his first G1 victory with a colt and continued the white hot run for jockey Adam Hyeronimus. SHANGRI LA BOY will consider himself a tad unlucky as he was used up early on a tempo where they went 6L above standard through the first 1400m. His high cruising speed is a terrific asset – shame for him The Valley we knew doesn’t exist anymore.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.