In his Nicomachean Ethics, Aristotle wrote: “We become just by doing just acts, temperate by doing temperate acts, brave by doing brave acts.”
Character develops through repeated action. I teach my seven-year-old son that he might no know he’s brave or kind, but other people learn that through what he does. Practise those qualities so your actions show the person you want to be. If there’s a gap between the two, keep practising.
ALABAMA SHOWDOWN had to fight hard for his Nowra win on Sunday. That came as no surprise. He doesn’t win every time, but he’s never been one to give in when challenged. This horse runs his guts out.
ZOUKERINO won’t go down as a turf great, but give him a suck-run and he can be very hard to beat. That’s exactly what he got, doing no work on the rails while ALABAMA SHOWDOWN did the donkey work outside the lead.
ZOUKERINO went past our charge and established a clear break. But ALABAMA SHOWDOWN did what he’s always done: dug deep, fought back and won.
Bravery, through repeated action.
It was great to hear some owners took the exacta after we made ZOUKERINO, a $13 chance, the horse we had to beat.
FLYING BANDIT looked good when resuming off a 5-month break at Rosehill last Wednesday.
His BM88 won by the import PERISHER, didn’t rate very well but he was solid enough to the line on a rain affected track and the shape of this race should provide an ideal platform for him to launch a strong campaign after falling short of expectations last time in.
SOUTHERN GRACE found a hot Maiden at Hawkesbury last Thursday when resuming. Her time of 1.04:3 is around 6L inside standard but the winner smashed the clock leaving her to run 4th. She ran the best last 400m of the day and will almost certainly win a similar race soon – perhaps she enjoyed wet ground?
NIGHTS LIKE THIS was making her debut in the same race and has a bit to learn after racing greenly – this was a real “welcome to racing” for her and she’ll appreciate an easier maiden next time.
It’s possible BANG ON TIME didn’t see out the 1500m at the same meeting. The tempo was fast with the leader going more than 2L above standard through the first 900m – that presents the case that BANG ON TIME might improve with a run at the trip. Her 400-200m split was sharp but she hit the wall inside the last 200m albeit plenty in this field did. That said, her overall time was nearly 3L below standard and off that tempo, you’d expect more.
The race HEAD OF THE RIVER ran in at Gatton on Friday was only an average maiden, rating more than 2L below standard. That’s two weakish maidens in a row that she’s been beaten in, one on a fast tempo and this one was just even.
EMPHATIQUE did a good job charging home over 1000m at the Sunshine Coast on Friday night. She’s proven quite versatile – this prep has seen her sit on speed over 1350m while also swooping from the back at 1000m – both with good results, albeit without winning.
MELTDOWN probably needs it a tad easier than what he got at Doomben on Saturday. But that said, his time of 1.37:4 was only just over 2L below standard and to be fair it wasn’t a day for frontrunners.
PRIVATE EYE again showed his liking for the 1400m at Caulfield. He finished a close second to WAR MACHINE in the Group 3 Harry White Stakes, which was run at a fast tempo. Perhaps a shot at the CF Orr Stakes isn’t out of the question?
KING’S SECRET was back and wide without cover in a slowly run Group 2 Sydney Stakes (1200m) at Randwick and his last 200m was poor compared to what we’ve become accustomed to.
This Saturday sees the Cox Plate run at Flemington. Here are some stats to ponder;
Favourites have dominated recently: eight of the 11 editions from 2015–2025, delivering a 78% return from backing each for $100.
Preparation and lead-up form matter: fourth or fifth-up is the sweet spot, while the last four winners coming through the Caulfield Stakes all won that lead-up.
Midfield has been the recent pattern: eight of the last 10 winners settled third to seventh, although the move to Flemington may change how the race unfolds.
Good punting.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.