Another stakes placing for ACCREDITED at Newcastle on Saturday has left the gelding facing one major obstacle – the handicapper.
The Hunter over 1300m was run at Group 2 level and won by COAL CRUSHER, who claimed his first stakes victory (the Hunter was only elevated to black type status last year). He was lifted 4 domestic rating points, while ACCREDITED, the runner-up, copped 2. For anyone new to ratings: 2 points = 1kg, meaning ACCREDITED now carries an extra kilo in the same race.
He got 4kg off a horse who wasn’t even a stakes winner — and still couldn’t beat him. So why penalise him at all?
Then it gets worse. CLEAR THINKING, who finished fourth, was slugged 8 points. It’s absurd. We’re penalising horses who are still learning their craft for daring to take on seasoned performers, even when they’re not beating them.
This was a Group 2 at a provincial track, not a Group 1 at Randwick during The Championships. ACCREDITED now sits on a domestic rating of 101, above the benchmark level, despite not being a stakes winner. You could debate whether his previous stakes placings warranted a lift — but this one? Impossible to justify.
CLEAR THINKING started $4.20 in The Hunter — meaning almost one in four punters wanted to be on her. Put another way, if she doesn’t run, every other horse shortens by roughly 25%. You don’t need a maths degree to know what that does for turnover.
Racing NSW is trying to grow these stand-alone provincial meetings to keep the spring rolling deeper into November. The data is clear: once footy ends and before the cricket begins, wagering and eyeballs on racing are at their highest.
So here’s a simple fix: any horse contesting a stakes race at the two November stand-alone meetings — Newcastle and Kembla — should only be penalised if they win.
That one rule would attract progressive young horses to these programs, boost field quality, and lock these meetings in as permanent fixtures on the Australian racing calendar.
Enough of the whining and ACCREDITED’s figures suggest there might be more improvement to come. He’s clocked the 7th fastest last 100m of the day but his last 200m ranked 7th for the race. He’ll progress towards the Festival Stakes and then likely have a crack at the mile in The Ingham. There’s not much in his data to say he’s crying out for a mile, it’s a genuine risk, but Joe Pride could get MANIKATO to win a Melbourne Cup the way he’s going. Pride is beating market expectations by 45% from his last 100 runners.
I fell into SHOT OF WHISKEY again. And again told the owners in the pre-race report to back him. Possibly a case of the operation being a success but the patient died. Based on our track intel and the fact he was coming back in trip, we thought SHOT OF WHISKEY could lead, be used up a tad to break away from them approaching the turn and then use that space to move out to Lane 3 or wider. All that happened but he what we couldn’t see in the run was that he had to do too much work in the first 500m. He went 3L above standard through that section, which together with the kick around the bend left him vulnerable late.
Earlier in the week, ICONIC TREASURE resumed with a pleasing last at Canterbury. Despite finishing 9th in a 9-horse field, he was still inside standard time, which tells you APEX posted a fast win. Watch for ICONIC TREASURE to peak third-up.
On the same day up north, TINTAURA looked ok finishing 5th in at her first crack at the mile. Out of Oaks winner, TINTO, she might prefer a faster tempo than the 10L below standard she got in this Maiden event at the Sunshine Coast.
JIMMYSTAR won the final Group 1 of the year on the east coast when staving off ANGEL CAPITAL in what was an above average renewal of the CF Orr Stakes (1400m).
Jimmy’s last 1200m was very strong suggesting a mile might now be within his reach after failing at the trip as a younger horse. He is without doubt the best sprinter in the land, for now.
Speaking of sprinters – the last G1 sprint race of the year will be the Winterbottom Stakes on November 29 at Ascot. The Perth feature attracts east-coast raiders almost every year and Bjorn Baker will be back with OVERPASS again this year. But I’d say they’ve all got their work cut out for them against JOKERS GRIN. He’s always shown a sharp turn of foot but struggled much beyond 1000m. This preparation we’ve seen him in a new sphere and his closing sectionals in last weekend’s Colonel Reeves Stakes over 1100m were sensational. He ran the best last 800m of the day and his last 200m was more than 3L above standard.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.