Lady luck again deserted KING’S SECRET at Rosehill last weekend.
The Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m) looked the perfect race until he drew barrier 12. It’s a shocking start from 1200m at Rosehill. Alas, he was posted three wide without cover throughout and they didn’t loaf. The leader went through the first 600m 1.8L above standard to the 600m. That’s a tough combination — doing work in a race with genuine pressure. Add to that a headwind coming around the turn and you can see why he finished 8th and I’m sure you’ll agree the beaten margin of 3L was pretty good considering?
The race rated well overall and he was unlucky. With cover and a softer map, he’s finishing much closer. Stay with him, particularly into something like the Hall Mark Stakes if he maps to get a better run.
ROCK THE SUNRISE was another whose run reads better through the lens of sectionals than the finishing position. At Eagle Farm over 1600m last Wednesday, he finished 7th, beaten 2.6 lengths. The race shape didn’t suit. He travelled in a race that was run 4.3L slower than standard to the 600m, a clear sit-and-sprint, which immediately favours horses with a turn of foot. That he does not have.
He looked plain to the line but he was on the wrong part of the track. He made his run in Lane 2 on a day when 7 of the 8 winners were in Lanes 4 to 8. His ideal race is fast tempo where he can swoop in favourable ground. He pretty much got the opposite of that last week. Don’t drop off but be aware he needs things to go his way to win.
SOLOACT was disappointing again at Grafton on Monday. He parked third the fence and granted the rail raced inferior with winners coming down the middle, but regardless he was plain and will need to lift.
Last weekend we were treated to some proper thoroughbred action, with two of the best races staged in 2026, the Tancred Stakes and the Australian Cup.
PRIDE OF JENNI galloped through the first 1400m of the Australian Cup around 17L above standard. She broke all hearts bar LIGHT INFANTRY MAN’s, who nabbed her late to stop the clock about 3.5L inside standard time.
The rhetoric from PRIDE OF JENNI’s owner Tony Ottobre suggesting JUST FINE ruined her chances is garbage. “I want a fair race,” Ottobre said to Gareth Hall on SEN this week, Waterhouse & Bott-trained gallopers are trained to lead or sit on pace. And anyone who has studied races PRIDE OF JENNI contests will know the only way to beat her is to race outside your comfort zone. Look what happened in the 2024 Queen Elizabeth Stakes when they let JENNI lead by 30L. Ottobre said he wouldn’t be running in races where Gai Waterhouse has a runner and therefore will likely go to the Queen Of Turf with PRIDE OF JENNI. What happens if Waterhouse has a runner in that?
Out of the Australian Cup, we got a taste of the spring in my humble opinion – SABAJ stays 2000m and APULIA is a live Cups chance. SABAJ was on trial at 2000m and there is no better test than this. He clocked the best last 200m of the race – do they look at a Hollindale – Doomben Cup campaign?
APULIA keeps improving with age. He won the Perth Cup on New Year’s Day and for mine looks a Cup prospect. Not since Rogan Josh in 1999, has a Perth Cup winner won the Melbourne Cup – albeit he had the Bart polish. Still, the Hayes boys are doing a tremendous job with APULIA and he should get a nice weight in the spring.
Twenty minutes after a thrilling Australian Cup, it was Sydney’s turn to show some magic. A daring move from DUBAI HONOUR in the Tancred Stakes almost pinched it but like the Australian Cup, he got run down by AELIANA, who improved 3L on our database from her winning mark in the Ranvet Stakes 7 days earlier. She too will be a force in the spring but with multiple G1s already in her cabinet, her weight will be at the higher end.
Day 1 of The Championships this Saturday. Barrier draws for the 4 x G1s are done with most eyes on the Doncaster Mile gates. Some first thoughts;
SHEZA ALIBI has drawn perfectly in 13 with the rail expected to be inferior this week. She has to overcome history with no 3YO filly wining since SUNLINE 1999 and no 3YO has won the Doncaster 3rd-up in the modern era.
AUTUMN BOY drew gate 1 which isn’t ideal but he’s got a 2000m run under the belt and if he can hold a spot in the first 6 then he might get the jump on the filly that he needs.
Best roughie for mine is ENCAP – race shapes against this prep and placed in the race last year. In fact, his G1 1600m Randwick form shows he’s got within 1.2L of the winner twice from 3 attempts. He’s drawn 4 with Alysha Collett to ride.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.