KING’S SECRET lands himself in the blackbook following his first crack at Group racing. And James McDonald is now just two wins shy of being the greatest Group 1 performer in the pigskin.
It’s been quite the week in racing with some off-track chat also capturing headlines but more about that later.
Let’s start with the main reason we do this sport – the horses. KING’S SECRET resumed in Saturday’s G3 Maurice McCarten Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill on Saturday.
He bowed out a Listed winner last prep and it looked like a tilt at The Galaxy might be on the cards. Alas, a domestic rating below where KING’S SECRET needed to be paved the way for a Group 3 resumption. And while he was beaten, KING’S SECRET proved he is right up to this level and possibly more.
He settled fifth in a 9-horse field and was shuffled back a tad before coming around his opponents into the home straight.
Only FLYING FOR FUN, winner of the Maurice McCarten, went quicker up the Rosehill straight (last 400m) across the whole meeting. And KING’S SECRET ran a faster split than her over the last 200m. Nothing at the meeting came home quicker than 11.08 and his overall time was half-a-length inside standard. We can confidently say he’s at least Group 3 quality and make a stern case he’s up to Group 2.
The 1200m of the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes back at Rosehill on Saturday week will suit him immensely.
On Friday night HEAD OF THE RIVER was beaten in a 1000m maiden at the Sunshine Coast. She looked due for a win but laboured home for 2nd with ELUSIVE DOMINA proving too good. Adding further concern is this race rated poorly. There was a 1000m race for the boys run 30 minutes earlier. The winner, YOU’RE NOT THE KING, ran a slick 59.56 but even the second horse across the line, ZOUSTROLOGY, still ran faster time than ELUSIVE DOMINA. In fact, the first four horses across the line in that Colts and Gelding race ran faster time than any of the fillies.
SMUDGED had to do a bit of work getting across from her wide gate at Ipswich on Saturday afternoon and weakened noticeably in her BM60 1350m contest. They ran decent time and she peaked third-up last prep so perhaps another chance is warranted?
LAZZURA stole the show at Rosehill last Saturday winning the lone Group 1 around the country. And she did it in style too.
As we say in the sectional world – “out fast/home fast, they’ll struggle to beat you”. LAZZURA went through her first 900m 2L above benchmark and came home her last 600m a tad better than 1L above giving her an overall time that was more than 3L inside standard time. A superb performance for a mare lumped with 58kg.
Looking ahead to this Saturday and we have the world’s richest 2YO event, the Golden Slipper.
Plenty of pace drawn wide here – CLOSER TO FREE, PARADOXIUM, SHIKI, PEMBREY, STREISAND – you can expect a FAST tempo.
This crop is so evenly matched the run in transit will most likely determine the outcome. It’s a race where history does repeat itself. For example, 26 of the last 35 winners have settled in the first 8 while 21 of the last 24 have enjoyed a rails in run transit. These two stats suggest being up and in is beneficial for the Golden Slipper.
In terms of lead-up form, 20 of the last 35 Slipper heroes have come through either the Reisling or Todman Stakes two weeks out from the big one. There was no doubt this year the Reisling won by CHAYAN rated better than the Todman. She is the favourite for the 2026 edition although fringe players tend to dominate with 20 of the last 35 winners starting at odds between $4.50 and $9.50.
It’s a race where jockeys need to be in the zone. The 1200m start is unforgiving and a wide barrier can spell disaster. No one is riding better than James McDonald, who is 17 from his last 50 (34%). Melbourne jockeys Craig Williams (28%) and Ben Melham (26%) are also riding better than their usual lofty standards and will ride CHAYAN and STREISAND respectively.
The Blue Diamond Stakes was run at the fastest tempo of any lead-up. Although it didn’t rate that highly, it could prove the most reliable form reference. STREISAND won, CHAYAN and ZANBALES were unlucky and CLOSER TO FREE was the horse the pro-punters wanted to back.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.