APEX PREDATOR made a successful start to her career at Doomben last Wednesday and the figures suggest more wins are in store.
The filly settled 2nd in her 1200m maiden and despite losing a plate, reeled off the 2nd fastest last 200m of the race to win stylishly in 1.12:1, which on a Soft 7 track is close to 2L inside standard time.
The tempo was strong with APEX PREDATOR running both halves of the race above standard – usually the best guide that a horse will win better races.
On a side note, Jag Guthmann-Chester has now won 16 of his 58 rides (28%) for Matt Hoysted and if you’d backed this combo every time they’d linked you’d be up around 36% on turnover.
Back to APEX PREDATOR and these figures indicate she will handle a tad further though there doesn’t appear any immediate need to go there. Saturday-grade beckons especially if they can find a way to get her down in the weights?
Also last Wednesday but down at Canterbury we had ELLE HUDSON and HARD LINER engaged.
Canterbury resembled Wentworth Park with only one horse that didn’t sit in the top 4 in running able to jag a race. And that horse settled 5th.
Exacerbating this issue was the fact you simply couldn’t come around them. Nothing ran on down the middle. Every winner bar one had rails in run and every winner bar two were still on the rail at the 400m. And for the sprint home? Six of the seven winners were in Lanes 1 to 4. Both ELLE HUDSON and HARD LINER settled outside the top 5 and were therefore disadvantaged, with the former getting into the 3-wide line at the 600m.
HARD LINER showed some improvement from his debut while I’d be wary about sacking ELLE HUDSON off this. His last 200m was well inside standard and he should peak next start.
Fast forward to Saturday and SHOT OF WHISKEY was looking for back to back wins when he took on a handy field in a BM85 at Ipswich.
He sat outside the lead, which is good for him but unfortunately they just went a tad too slow in front. I know it sounds crazy to say that given he was tiring over the last 200m but he struggles to win races when he goes moderately through the first half of the race. You’re better off hooning along and at least make the rest of them tired so they can’t chase as hard.
SEISMIC BOOM was on trial at 1350m when she ran in a Class 3 event (quite an ask for a horse that hasn’t won since her maiden). She ran bang on average time through the first 700m and from the 600 to the 200m was pretty much average as well. But her final 200m was plain, rating 4L below standard and ranking 99th for the day. It’s since come to light that she has pulled up with mucus in her throat which is a worthy excuse for this performance.
JOLIESTAR did Australia proud with a gallant 3rd in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (1200m) at Royal Ascot on Saturday night. It looked a two-horse race on paper between the Aussie queen and SATONO REVE from Japan. Typically, that saw them finish 2nd and 3rd behind ALMERAQ.
Earlier in the week, OVERPASS also finished third in the G1 King Charles III Stakes.
It must be quite the conundrum for owners – the prestige of Royal Ascot or the cold, hard cash in an Everest?
It’s pretty much impossible to do both, or at least be at your top for each.
This weekend marks the final Group 1 of the season – Tatts Tiara at Eagle Farm.
Looks a bit thin on class but GERRINGONG and MANAAL are the two that standout. GERRINGONG looked terrific at her first run for Chris and Corey Munce recently and will only improve while MANAAL has a long history of performing against the best of her sex.
Great to see SHEZA ALIBI’s connections put her spring path on the table which includes the King Charles – a race AUTUMN GLOW might be heading to.
Sadly, they didn’t clash in the Doncaster but you can’t blame Chris Waller or John Messara for not wanting to concede 7kg to SHEZA ALIBI.
The problem is we have too many big races worth bucket loads of cash. The good horses can dodge each other and earn plenty of prizemoney.
The system should force all the good horses to come together for a grand final worth massive money. Either that or go for a spell while the brave ones stay and play for real cash.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.