A bigger winning margin last Saturday and you’d be lucky to get black figures about LADY SHENANDOAH in Saturday week’s Group 1 Coolmore Classic (1500m).
The 3yo filly won the Group 1 Surround Stakes in fast time at Randwick on the weekend. Her 1.20:36 was around 6L above standard. This in addition to a strong last 200m suggests she is well above this grade. In fact, on times, she’s presenting as being able to compete at Group 1 WFA level against older males. But dwindling in the background, and I mean this with no disrespect to last year’s Golden Slipper winner, is the fact she only beat LADY OF CAMELOT by 0.4L.
In the ratings world, there’s predominantly two key elements that will determine a horse’s Starting Price at its next run. Times and Margins. That being, the time they ran last start and the winning (beaten) margin. If a slick time is posted but five horses hit the line within 1L of each other, then you’d have to query whether the track was playing faster than its official rating. Conversely, if you run average time but there’s a big margin, you have to ask yourself is every other runner in that race really that bad? Horses that win in fast time by a sizeable margin are the ones to follow because you can trust the data. More importantly, these are the horses that typically occupy a fair percentage of the market at their following run.
Back to LADY SHENANDOAH. Had the margin been 3L then you’d be looking at approximately $1.90 for the Coolmore Classic and should she get the right conditions on the day then maybe shorter. I still think the $2.80 currently out there is a spoil. So too the $2 about VIA SISTINA to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes next month. She won the Group 1 Verry Elleegant Stakes last weekend while having a flat run. Doubt they beat her again this prep. Now your multi is $2.80 x $2 = $5.60.
Looking ahead to this Saturday and we have the Randwick Guineas as a pivotal race for futures punters. SWIFTFALCON needs to win to get into the Doncaster Mile otherwise he has to win the G1 George Ryder Stakes against the older horses or the Doncaster Mile Prelude and back-up possibly with a 2.5kg penalty. Should he win this weekend then he’d be a weighted certainty to win the Donny next month on just 49kg.
Also in the Randwick Guineas is AELIANA, who will likely switch back to her own sex and tackle the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes next time. Victorian filly TREASURETHE MOMENT is well above average and heads that way before the ATC Oaks. I prefer AELIANA but take the risk out of it and snap up the $2 about AELIANA running a place in the Vinery. Your multi should now be returning $11.20 for every $1 invested.
Proven Thoroughbreds had a strong week. It kicked off with ROCK THE SUNRISE, who had to do it at both ends last Wednesday at Doomben. In a bid to not risk being wide no cover, we pressed forward on him only to be met with a few others thinking the same thing. The first 1000m of this 1650m contest was almost 9L above standard. He was left a sitting duck but ran a mighty race to finish second.
OTONO went one better winning a Class 1 race over 1625m at Wyong on Thursday. She produced the fastest last 200m of the day when smashing standard time by 6L and is one to follow.
MOONFLEET was disappointing second-up over 1400m at the Sunshine Coast on Friday night. She over-raced and missed a place but she’s better than that.
HANG FIVE was the best away at Eagle Farm on Saturday when he went second-up into a 1400m BM78 race. The slow tempo saw him push forward but his last 200m was poor and he looks better suited when ridden cold at 1400m regardless of the tempo.
Still at Eagle Farm and one of our most exciting horses, TERMAGANT, chalked up her 5th win at start number nine in a thrilling finish to a class 6 event. Briefly held up at the top of the straight, the daughter of DEEP FIELD dashed to the front and staved off a late challenge from MILLANE clocking the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day with her overall time beating the standard by more than 1L. She’ll be even better suited with more room to move.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.