Character building week for Proven Thoroughbreds while two superstars further enhanced their credentials as Australia’s best within their respective categories.
The week began with DECLAN at Gosford on Wednesday. Heavily backed from $3.80 into $3, he was overpowered by a promising galloper in WRITTEN IN WRATH, who clocked the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day to beat our boy. DECLAN beat Super Maiden standard time by 2.5L and reeled off the 9th fastest last 200m of the day. Normally figures like this would win you a race of this nature. Alas, we ran into a smart one.
Our pre-race report for LARADO was simple. He wins on times but the wet track is the unknown. Jockey Daniel Moor told stewards LARADO failed to handle the Soft 6 conditions, which provided an excuse albeit a hard one to swallow for the punters that backed him from $1.60 into $1.45. Trainer Matt Hoysted is airborne recently striking at 23% from his last 100 runners and during that time has exceeded market expectations by 24%. He will get LARADO back into form but we now know this galloper needs a dry track. Say goodbye to Sydney autumn carnival plans!
I ended up having a bet on HEAD OF THE RIVER on Saturday night. Only because I’m a true romantic and knew my wife’s idea of the perfect Valentine’s dinner included watching the Sherrin Rentals Maiden Plate at Toowoomba. The filly started $12 and had plenty to offer coming around the turn. Valentines dinner started to erupt, the collect was almost as handsome as my wife’s date. But then we got the Valentines reminder of The Great Game, where racing reiterates how painful it can be. HEAD OF THE RIVER spent half the straight looking for a run while LADIES OCEAN RUN shot clear. She took ground off the winner over the last 100m but the bird had flown. I was filthy.
Fortunately I was able to witness some equine brilliance hours earlier. First we had TENTYRIS come from last to win the G1 Lightning Stakes (1000m). He clocked 31.2 seconds from the 800m to the 200m. He went through that section 6L faster than any horse on the day. Simply remarkable.
Shortly after, AUTUMN GLOW made it 9 from 9 in the G2 Apollo Stakes (1400m). She clocked the 2nd fastest last 400m/200m of the day and the fastest last 1200m. Her dominance is scary. To put it into numbers – she was 2L off the lead and then her last 600m was 2L faster than anything in the race. Typically the backmarkers run the best last 600m of the race, often not enough to win but they’re still the ones finishing best. When you get an on-pacer doing it, they dominate. BLACK CAVIAR is the best example I’ve seen. On pace gallopers that produce the best late splits are the best bets. Any punter learning their craft will discover this early in their journey.
JOLIESTAR made it 5 from 7 in the G2 Expressway Stakes (1200m). She is best fresh. The challenge is where to go next? Sydney autumn equals rain and this mare doesn’t like it too wet. If you go fresh to the TJ Smith and this year’s edition becomes the 9th in 12 years to end up on wet ground then you’d have to go back to Brisbane. Whatever the case, she really should target The Everest first-up for mine.
ANGEL CAPITAL was my best of the day but was unplaced in that race after being vetted. It was also a timely reminder of the importance of a regular hoop on difficult horses. ANGEL CAPITAL has always had a tendency to over race. He missed the start last Saturday and copped a small dig to catch up from Zac Lloyd. But that resulted in the entire over racing for 200-300m and he was a spent force coming up the rise.
This weekend in Melbourne we have the Blue Diamond, Oakleigh Plate and Futurity Stakes treble at Caulfield. There is no standout in the 2YO ranks. I’ve fancied TROPICUS for the Oakleigh Plate since September last year and won’t be dropping off.
Looking forward to seeing AUTUMN BOY back at the track but I wouldn’t be surprised if SHANGRI LA BOY gave them something to chase in the Hobartville Stakes.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.