The big question coming out of Saturday’s Rosehill meeting is where to for the Rosehill Guineas runners, while there can be no question about AUTUMN GLOW‘s prospects.
BROADSIDING won’t go to the Derby, has too much weight for the Doncaster so the logical next step would be the G1 All Aged Stakes on the final day of the Randwick carnival albeit 2000m back to 1400m is no mean feat.
Guineas runner-up AELIANA is the one to follow into the Classics – a natural stayer that could win a Derby against the boys. Logic suggests her trainer Chris Waller will see how TREASURETHE MOMENT goes this Saturday in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. You’d think this pair of star three-year-olds will take different paths.
Its now highly unlikely SWIFTFALCON will make the Doncaster Mile field, which is a shame because he’s the perfect type for the Randwick Mile. He possesses a turn of foot and if you look back at the 3YO winners of the Doncaster you’ll note most of them could sprint well fresh. If he doesn’t get into the Donny, you’d be mad not to freshen him and have a crack at the G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Perhaps 1400m is short of his best but he clocked the best last 200m of the day when resuming in the G2 Hobartville Stakes, also over 1400m.
VIA SISTINA was superb and only a bog track or bad luck beats her in the QE next month. But her stablemate, AUTUMN GLOW looks just as good for the G2 Arrowfield Stakes. She smashed the clock in the Darby Munro when first-up off a setback. Watch her win the Arrowfield and then Everest discussions emerge. You’d be foolish not to snap up a bit of the $17 around town for the Everest albeit the Hong Kong sprinter KA YING RISING has a bit on her at this stage.
The week for Proven Thoroughbreds began on Wednesday at Wyong. When I sent out my pre race audio preview to the owners of ICONIC TREASURE, I suggested he was a good 1×2 or 1×3 bet at $12 given his favourable map, it was hard to see him missing a place. But the market pushed him right out to $31 just before they jumped. Alas, the market has become insanely inefficient in recent times and he was beaten a nose. If only we waited for the better odds!
MOONLIGHT GAMBLER has had his issues but broke his maiden at Newcastle on Thursday. It was good to see him park behind the pace, giving him a bunny to chase. He relished that challenge and knuckled down well to beat standard time by 1L. A 1000m race in town where he’d drop in weight wouldn’t be out of the question off this run.
Fast forward to Saturday and it was the Provincial Championship Heat at Kembla with one of our highly regarded gallopers in FLYING BANDIT resuming in the 1400m contest. Backed as if unbeatable the son of TRAPEZE ARTIST sat near the tail of the 14-horse field and circumnavigated the field around the home turn. He kept coming in the straight clocking the best last 600m of the race but had to settle for 3rd beaten 1L.
It was a different story up north as NAVAL TRADER went second-up at Eagle Farm. He was $7 out to $13 and that’s because the punters could see the two Tony Gollan horses would share the lead and go slowly. They went through the first 800m almost 8L below standard. NAVAL TRADER needs a fast tempo to show his best. Considering he was also coming off a big first-up effort, this was a forgive run and he’s one for your blackbook if he turns up in a race with pace next time.
I had the pleasure of doing a radio segment on 2GB with Neil Breen on Sunday. He part owns MOONFLEET, who was headed to the Sunshine Coast that afternoon. Neil queried the pre-race audio report where I mentioned 1400m was her only concern. I stood by my concern on the airwaves but was happy to watch the filly prove me wrong when she took out a Class 2 event. That said, the race was run slowly with the overall time about half a second slower than the Maiden on the same day. Will be interesting to see if she can stretch out beyond the sprint trips this preparation.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.