THE BLACK CLOUD notched her first stakes win at Eagle Farm on Saturday and Joe Pride has definitely unlocked the key to this mare.
Pride switched her back to 1000m two starts ago and she almost pinched a Group 3 race at Kembla. In fact, if you isolate her runs at this distance, she hasn’t finished further back than 2nd in 5 starts. Her biggest losing margin was 1.4L and that was behind FLEETWOOD in one of the highest-rating BM78 races we have on our database.
On Saturday the concern was a low draw on a day where our intel was suggesting Eagle Farm would play off rail. THE BLACK CLOUD was surrounded by horse flesh as the field entered the straight and still at the 200m she had nowhere to go. But with a grounding over further, when the gap eventually appeared this mare was super strong to the line. The race didn’t rate particularly well being 1.5L outside standard time and the late splits were just fair but given THE BLACK CLOUD was held up, we know she could’ve gone at least 2L quicker.
The tricky part will be finding suitable races for her. The G2 Challenge Stakes on March 7 perhaps?
Not long after THE BLACK CLOUD broke her black-type maiden, PRIVATE EYE jumped in the $1.5million Supernova at Pakenham as the only runner in single digits. Similar to THE BLACK CLOUD, his low draw worked against him but unlike the mare it was enough to thwart his winning chances. PRIVATE EYE was forced to make his run in Lane 2 – the closest any winner was to the fence was Lane 3 and the remaining 9 winners on the day were in Lanes 5 and beyond. Pakenham played off rail and PRIVATE EYE was too close to it. Amazing to think the first time the old boy draws a gate and its when you want to be off rail! The pace was hot too, they went through the first 800m 7L above standard and he was right on it. Setting aside the agony of finishing second, the positive is he absorbed high pressure and kept finding in a 1400m contest. I truly believe 1400m is the best distance to excel at in Australia’s current calendar.
Staying-bred filly PROXIMA CENTAURI commenced her career at Canterbury on Friday. She was out the back and somewhat run off her feet in a fast run race where they went through the first half of the race more than 3L above standard. She’ll derive good benefit from this and an easier assignment over further next start could see improve sharply.
A couple of races later COLUMBIA BLUE made it two from two this prep with a fast win, smashing standard time for BM72s over 1100m by more than 4L. It was a career peak rating for the son of Everest winner YES YES YES and he can go back to a BM72 as he only carried 54.5kg here. He’d had enough on the line so there’s little evidence to suggest he wants further but he certainly gets a strong 1100m.
TOWN CRIER, aka Foot Soldier (just turns up and has a crack at your beckon), put in his usual bold display in a Class 6 at Eagle Farm on Saturday. We knew he was up against it when doing the pre race report as the track info was telling us it would be an off-rail day. As it was, only one winner used inside lane 5, which adds merit to TOWN CRIER’s bold on pace effort.
HEYOKA found herself in a real race when she lined up in the Eagle Farm closer – a BM70 over 1400m. Tempo rated 6L above standard and she was brave in third after having to change course in the straight, albeit her last 400m was nearly 5L below standard. She’s now placed in 4 of her 6 runs this campaign and finished 4th and 6th at her other runs.
Boy oh boy if you backed HIT THE SWITCH at the Sunny Coast on Sunday you’re probably still trying to work out how you did your dough?! He laid in a tad in the straight and couldn’t quite reel in the leader in his Maiden Handicap over 1200m. It’s clearly poor manners as the pace was too slow to suggest he laid in due to being tired. That said, he’ll be fresh for his next run as this was not much more than a rousing track gallop.
TAKE A BOW just loves the 1000m at the Sunny Coast – she finished 2nd in her BM65 contest but the day favoured leaders so we had to hug the rail which diminished her chances. She can just keep running there and banking cheques for her owners.
ELIVINA was poor at Nowra on Sunday but she pulled up with a slow recovery and has since revealed some filling in her pastern so had genuine excuses. She was the $2.15 favourite in her Class 2 1600m assignment but was struggling from the turn in a race that only rated fairly.
This is my last column for the year – thanks for tuning into the weekly dribble. Couple of predictions for the break;
Firstly, the Aussies retain the Ashes.
Law Connect to take line honours in the Sydney to Hobart.
Of the Proven horses, KING’S SECRET should be winning soon (hopefully this Saturday).
And keep an eye out for YOYO YEEZY for Matt Hoysted – 5L inside standard time last Saturday at Eagle Farm and he might’ve had a bit in the tank – think he’ll work through the grades this summer.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.