A gutsy PRIVATE EYE may have run into one of the stars of the spring when finishing second in Saturday’s G2 PB Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield.
Returning from a nine-week break, the old boy was heavily backed to defend the race he won last year. PRIVATE EYE camped second off a tempo almost 6L below standard, with race favourite COSMIC CRUSADER around 5L behind him at the 600m.
That set the race up for a sprint home and COSMIC CRUSADER simply had too much dash in the wet conditions. PRIVATE EYE also spent the race in Lane 1, and while Lane 2 produced two winners on the day, nothing won hard against the fence.
There are no excuses needed for the winner, though. COSMIC CRUSADER was impressive and could easily cause a Memsie boilover in two weeks’ time.
PRIVATE EYE now heads back to Sydney for the Tramway Stakes in September. His path beyond that remains open, with a freshen-up before a tilt at the CF Orr among the options.
The week began on Wednesday with a trio of runners at Eagle Farm.
EMPHATIQUE jumped $4 but not a lot went right in her F&M 1200m maiden. She was slowly away, copped a buffeting just after the 800m mark and was held up multiple times in the straight. You couldn’t say she should’ve won given the 4.5L margin, but she should’ve finished at least 2L closer. There’s nothing in her sectionals suggesting she wants further than 1200m. In fact, I could mount a case that 1100m might suit her better, although I wouldn’t hang my hat on it. Anywhere from 1000-1200m should be ideal.
HEAD OF THE RIVER is definitely one who will appreciate dropping back in distance after finishing unplaced in the same race. She’s an eight-start maiden, so you can understand the desire to test her over further than she’d previously raced. But she over-raced and every sectional was below standard — a strong indicator she didn’t run the trip.
I backed NAVAL TRADER each-way at double-figure odds, thinking the track pattern would suit him better than at his previous start when leaders were heavily favoured. Unfortunately, he was caught wide throughout his 1400m contest and never featured. That’s now four average runs in a row — albeit some with excuses — for what used to be a super-consistent racehorse.
I spoke with Proven’s Tom Walter on Thursday morning. He was filthy about his 64-hour trip home from the US but still found time to wax lyrical about PROXIMA CENTAURI, who was running at Newcastle that day. I’d actually called to ask about BROADWAY STREET. He was first-up over 1400m and trainer Kerry Parker typically takes his time with them, so I was looking for any sort of positivity to launch.
Moments after we hung up, I did the form for PROXIMA and agreed with Tom that $13 was well over the odds. I backed her each-way with more on the place and had a decent stab at BROADWAY STREET. Naturally, they ran fourth and second respectively.
BROADWAY STREET produced the best last 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m of the race but was nutted by a horse that enjoyed a dream rails split. PROXIMA CENTAURI was briefly held up before switching back to the inside and possibly should’ve placed — but that’s racing. She went from a very fast-run race two starts back to Thursday’s dawdle, which isn’t an easy adjustment. Her effort suggests she’s going well enough to win a similar race soon.
REAL MCCOY disappointed again, with his overall time almost 6L below standard for 1250m maidens at Newcastle. It’s becoming difficult to know where to go with him.
There’s not much I can add about OCEAN ZAR and MELTDOWN, who both finished last at Doomben on Saturday. MELTDOWN should improve with another run under his belt. Don’t be surprised if he produces a form reversal once he’s fit enough to lead in a race around a mile or further.
Hopefully some of you grabbed the $3 about NATURAL FLING in the Quezette Stakes at Caulfield via our Friday tip. She started $2.20 and bolted in. A client of mine owns an Everest slot. I’ve already told them that’s who I’d be getting.
The girls in Sydney also did well in the Rosebud. CHILLY GIRL was more than 5L inside standard time when beating BLUE DOOR. I’m told the latter had a good blow afterwards, so expect her to improve plenty when they next clash.
It’s good to have the carnival back.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.