The week began at Newcastle on Tuesday where the talented but equally frustrating WILD THOUGHTS attempted to qualify for the Provincial Championship Final on Day 2 of The Championships.
With a set of winkers on for the first time, the team was upbeat about a berth in the Randwick finale. But WILD THOUGHTS raced a tad keenly and despite making his run with the eventual winner, LORD OF BISCAY, could only manage 7th around 3L away.
It’s hard to know where to go next with him – he’s been tested on wet/dry ground, settled handy and been ridden off pace. The one thing I notice in his data is that his best definitely comes in fast run races and other than his first-up run, he’s yet to strike one this prep. Clutching at straws? Maybe, but we know the ability is there. Must also consider that he’s just off at the moment – it happens with horses and sometimes for absolutely no reason. Similar to humans, horses thrive at different points of their life but rarely thrive full-time. The other factor of course is the class, he’s eligible to come back sharply in grade next start so we are likely to get a much better handle on how he’s going then.
MOVER AND SHAKER was poor in the 900m contest on the same day with little to no excuses. That said, the winner, LADY CATALINA, might be one to follow beating standard time by 2L and looking comfortable doing so.
Last Wednesday at Doomben, ROCK THE SUNRISE was tested at 2000m+ for the first time. He’s a horse that had previously lacked dash at a mile. In the pre-race report we discussed two possible outcomes – either he’s been looking for 2000m and will show acceleration out to this trip. Or, he’ll race like a horse that didn’t see out the trip meaning he’s just a miler that needs a fast pace to win. The latter looks more likely albeit there is a caveat. The field ripped through the first 1400m 4L above standard and came home just a fraction below. His overall time was more than 1L below standard but his last 600m was poor – more than 4L below and 7th fastest in a race with 12 runners. This looks as though he’s better in a fast run mile but the caveat is this was his first go at 2000m and it was a proper staying test. You’d want to see him again to make the final but gun to my head, I’d say he’s a classic example of a miler that needs tempo.
OCEAN ZAR was second-up in her Class 5 1350m event finishing 5th beaten 4L in a race where the shape played against her. They were around 13L behind standard time at the halfway mark and she simply doesn’t have the turn of foot to offset that. Her run was a forgive and we might get a price next time.
HEAD OF THE RIVER was the lone Proven runner on Saturday. She finished 4th in a 1000m maiden at the Gold Coast which ran ok time in comparison to the other two sprint races on the day.
COSMONOVA struck a slowly run 1100m race at Rosehill on Easter Monday and ran well for 4th. She ran 4th because I suggested to the owners in our pre-race report that she was a great bet to run a place! She loves the 1100m at Rosehill but on this occasion the soft (6) track may have taken away some of her dash.
SHEZA ALIBI was the star of the show at Randwick producing the fastest time rating of any Doncaster Mile on our database. She rated 99, which puts her alongside the greats like WINX but we adjust that figure to reflect her weight versus WFA before assigning her rating. Carrying 5.5kg below WFA means we determine how many lengths that is worth at 1600m. Each to their own but my system is around 0.7L per 1kg at that distance. That means we knock 3.85pts off her 99 and we land on 95 (rounded down). For context, AUTUMN GLOW posted a 94 winning the George Ryder Stakes. We always favour the horse that has run the time rating. That’s because we know they can go that quick, its just whether a little extra weight will slow them down?
Speaking of AUTUMN GLOW, she’ll tackle 2000m for the first time in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes. What a shame PRIDE OF JENNI didn’t accept – would’ve added some spark to what looks just another 2000m WFA event. Don’t get me wrong, this is a good field but Chris Waller has 4 of the 8 acceptors. Nothing against him, but I lose interest in races where one trainer has half the field.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.