Proven Thoroughbreds’ form analyst Nic Ashman takes a look at this Saturday’s Oaks and Derby lead ups at Rosehill – the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes and Group 2 Tulloch Stakes.
The last 10 Vinery Stud Stakes winners were up in distance heading into the Group 1 2000m contest for fillies.
The 2024 edition of the Rosehill feature will be run this Saturday and boasts an honour roll littered with Group 1 winners, most notably VERRY ELLEEGANT, who won the Vinery in 2019, six months before her Caulfield Cup win and 18 months before that epic Melbourne Cup victory.
She won the Phar Lap Stakes over 1500m en route to Vinery success. The Phar Lap Stakes is the best lead-up form to the Vinery with the race providing 4 of the last 6 winners.
Only PROWESS last year had a run at 2000m while this year another Kiwi filly, ORCHESTRAL, will be looking to come back from 2400m to win the Vinery – a feat no filly has done.
Meanwhile, the Tulloch Stakes is a proven guide to Australian Derby success.
Four of the last five Derbies have been run on rain affected going. The Tulloch provides a one week back-up, a crucial element to staying success on testing tracks.
In terms of lead-ups, its main rival is the Rosehill Guineas run at G1 level but the G2 Tulloch Stakes has provided 11 Derby winners, most recently with MAJOR BEEL last year.
In fact, five of the last seven Derby winners have come through the Tulloch Stakes.
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“Had a gap between runs before contesting a fast run Phar Lap Stakes where his late sectionals indicate fatigue. They were indicative of a horse that will improve immensely. He’s an ex-Kiwi that loves wet ground. We believe if he can squeeze into the Derby field then he’s a live chance especially if the track comes up wet”.
