LIGHT INFANTRY MAN ran blistering time winning Saturday’s Australian Cup and off his rating he is a genuine chance to beat VIA SISTINA.
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) is shaping up as the race of the autumn. LIGHT INFANTRY MAN rated 100 on the TBF Database – a basic time v weight method I’ve been using for years that no one bar me has access to.
TBF ratings are out of 100 – I like to keep it simple. Your average G1 race rates about 94. To give some context, WINX rated 100 on 3 occasions in her career although it must be said a lot of her WFA wins were in races where the tempo simply wouldn’t allow for a huge rating. Since she retired only 2 horses have hit 100 – VERRY ELLEEGANT and VIA SISTINA for their respective Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate wins.
VIA SISTINA’S biggest asset is her ability to absorb pressure. During her Cox Plate demolition, she went through the first 1400m around 10L above standard and still finished her last 600m 1L above standard.
Last Saturday LIGHT INFANTRY MAN went through his first 1400m more than 14L above standard before paddling through his last 600m 5L below. But PRIDE OF JENNI’s lead speed of 16L above meant this race became a war of attrition.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d still back VIA SITINA to win the QE in a fortnight’s time as she is primed to run a peak whereas LIGHT IN FANTRY MAN could easily have a flat run but off ratings alone he’s in the mix.
Here’s the last 6 Australian Cup winners and their winning rating:
Rosehill’s Tancred Stakes meeting was postponed until Tuesday, which raised a few eyebrows. I wasn’t on course and therefore can’t comment whether it was the right decision or not. But a G1 winning jockey called me Saturday morning to say Rosehill had massive potholes in the ground and that they were more of an issue than the rain.
With this in mind, I’d suggest you might want to consider horses that make their run away from the inside part of the track in the home straight. You might have read last week on Proven Thoroughbreds’ website, my best is DUCASSE in the Doncaster Mile Prelude and from a wide gate he might actually be advantaged on Tuesday.
The decision to postpone voting on the sale of Rosehill raises a question it would appear no journalist is prepared to ask. The ATC could’ve issued a statement saying a decision had been made to postpone the voting process. But they didn’t. Instead, they copped a directive from Racing NSW, who exercised its powers under The Thoroughbred Act and Totalisor Act. Previously, we’d been told this is a decision for the club and its members to decide on. The first question any proper journalist would ask is why are the ATC taking directives from Racing NSW on this issue? I can only see two reasons for this;
- The ATC was happy to push on with voting therefore if Racing NSW wanted it stopped they had no option but to intervene. Surely if that’s the case we must be asking ourselves why is Racing NSW now dictating this process?
- The ATC was on board with this directive which should then beg the question why didn’t they make the call themselves?
Whatever the reason one thing few can argue is the club and the governing body have lost a lot of confidence from the industry. It’s a leader’s job to bring people together not divide them. It was somewhat acceptable when the divide was between states as NSW typically rallied in support of pop-up races and changes in programming because we could see the benefit to us. Who cares what Victoria and the Victorians think, its not our job to please them, eh? But it is your job to please the people of NSW. And they are anything but pleased at the moment. I sincerely hope something changes soon.
On the home front, Proven’s week started with IMA CAPRI at Gosford on Thursday. He had his first crack in an 1100m race and I don’t think he was ready for the frantic tempo in this Maiden. They went through the first 500m 5L above standard making it tough for IMA CAPRI to close as strong as we’d liked. He will improve on a softer tempo and doubt he was at home on the rain-affected ground.
Grand campaigner STOCKMAN took his spot in the Listed Roy Higgins (2600m) at Flemington on Saturday. He ran out of his skin closing for 6th in the Melbourne Cup qualifier. DEAKIN won the race beating standard time by 1.5L with a small margin over BERKSHIRE BREEZE. STOCKMAN is on a jumps campaign and if Symon Wilde can get him jumping right then he’ll take a power of beating over the obstacles. Fast flat track stayers are rarely seen in jumps racing, in fact can anyone tell me the last time a horse that ran in the Melbourne Cup lines up at Warrnambool?
Wet weather precluded the remainder of Proven’s scheduled runners from facing the starter this week.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.