The Kingsford-Smith Cup is normally a great form reference for the Stradbroke Handicap but this year’s renewal rated poorly so I won’t be backing anything out of that race on Saturday.
We know JOLIESTAR is a good horse but the time stank and I can’t see the pro punters launching into one of these at their next run.
Of the three Kingsford-Smith runners backing-up in the Stradbroke, only RISE AT DAWN could potentially lift enough to be competitive but WAR MACHINE looks weighted to win. If third emergency WATERFORD sneaks into the field then make sure he’s in your trifecta.
YOU WAHNG might’ve won the Queensland Oaks but don’t give up on BENAGIL, who again had little luck being held up and then forced to make her run on slightly inferior ground. The Oaks rated well as you’d expect given the fast tempo. I hope they run BENAGIL in the Q22 this weekend as she would be a chance with better luck.
Down in Melbourne SHOCKLETZ won a 2000m event for Ciaron Maher. Her previous two wins were at Bendigo over shorter distances where she displayed a good turn of foot. When these types then learn to stay, they can became very handy horses as their speed gets them out of the kind of trouble most horses lose races over.
The week for Proven Thoroughbreds started with CARTWHEELS again showing she doesn’t get much beyond 1200m. The mare lined up in Class 3 1350m contest at Doomben and with the pace on it became a stern test. She battled for 2nd last clocking one of the worst last 400m times for the day.
Things turned around at Randwick on Saturday albeit not immediately. ELIVINA was unplaced, though not disgraced, in a fast BM72 over 2000m. Despite finishing 5th, she beat standard time by nearly 2L and we know she is up to this grade. Perhaps more given this was his first prep. She passed the Proven baton to IN FLIGHT, who might’ve been wearing black and green silks but I could’ve sworn I saw gold all over her as she smashed her rivals in the Listed Bob Charley Stakes (1100m). On my ratings, this was her career peak figure. That said, I bonused her performance 6L because the leader ambled through the first 500m 9L below standard. IN FLIGHT’s last 400m was 7L above standard and the beauty of a run like this is its barely more than a rousing track gallop.
TERMAGANT was balloted out of her stakes assignment at Eagle Farm on Saturday, and instead had to lump 62.5kg at the Sunny Coast on Sunday. She eased from $3 to $4 before finishing 1L off the winner, KING YOSHI, when 4th. I think the combination of a massive weight and a soft track brought her undone, as well as an interrupted run in the home straight. Watch for sharp improvement if she gets the right conditions next start.
We mentioned in this column two weeks ago that INDEFENSIBLE was on the right trajectory after posting the best last 1000m and 800m of the day at Canberra on May 23. She won again at Wyong on Sunday despite lady luck’s best efforts to stop her. Forced to race three wide, the filly dug deep to win a BM64 over 1200m. On the same day, MOVER AND SHAKER finished 3rd at the Sapphire Coast when resuming from a spell. At this stage these 1000m races suit her and she can only improve.
The camp had no option but to run COSMONOVA and THE BLACK CLOUD in the same race at Canterbury on Monday. THE BLACK CLOUD was unable to stave off the whirlwind finish of WORLD ALLIANCE when finishing runner-up. But it’s COSMONOVA I’d be following for now. She’s notoriously slower to come to hand each prep and the fact she was only 2L off THE BLACK CLOUD bodes well for her this preparation.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.