As the QLD carnival draws to a close we take a look at TASHI’s Tatts Tiara triumph as well as the prospects of emerging 2yo AUTUMN BOY.
TASHI’s Group 1 Tatts Tiara (1400m) win rated almost 2L above standard for the Eagle Farm feature and again highlighted the importance of historical trends.
Eight of the previous 12 winners of the Tatts Tiara finished in the Quinella at their prior run and TASHI clocked the best late splits of the race in the Dane Ripper, a race that has produced more Tiara winners than any other lead-up.
She again recorded the best last 200m of the race when taking out the final Group 1 of the 2024-25 season. However, her rating of 88 isn’t good enough to win your average G1 WFA race over 1400m.
Keep an eye on AUTUMN BOY, who made it 2 from 2 when taking out the Listed Tattersalls Stakes (1400m). His winning time was 4.5L slower than TASHI but if you stopped the footage at the 600m, she had 6L head start on him. And don’t forget TASHI had the best late splits in the Tatts Tiara. I think AUTUMN BOY can win a big race this spring.
The week for Proven Thoroughbreds commenced with HIT THE SWITCH making his debut at Doomben last Wednesday. He got a long way back before producing the best race splits from the 600m to the post including a last 200m in a slick 11.92, which ranked 2nd for the meeting. A very sound debut.
On the same day, down at Randwick’s Kensington track INDEFENSIBLE was shooting for the hattrick. She put in what looked to be an end of prep run. The filly over-raced and blew up late with a poor last 200m. In contrast, ELLE HUDSON, who resumed in the Kenso closer, a BM72 1300m contest, produced the second fastest last 400m and 200m of the race. Its an ominous warning for his rivals this campaign as this Kiwi import will only get better over further. He’s yet to be tested over 2000m but all his data points to that being his pet distance albeit you never know until they have a crack. Be wary of backing him next run as this sort of run could make him a tad dour, I’d be more inclined to follow him third and fourth-up this prep.
Then on Thursday WILD THOUGHTS resumed in a 1300m maiden at Hawkesbury. A race-fit COLD BREW was too much for him but the mid-race squeeze that saw him run 7L above standard between the 600m and 200m will bring this son of SO YOU THINK on immensely. He should be breaking his maiden next run in the right race.
BREAK FREE was chasing her fourth win in five starts when she lined up in the Eagle Farm opener on Saturday. Well supported in betting, the filly was sent out $2.80 but wanted to over-race during the middle stages of her 1200m contest. Perhaps she’s better over shorter trips? Her last 200m ranked 6th in a field of 9 and was more than 1L below standard. To give some context, the tempo was 2L below standard suggesting each horse had their chance to finish off.
TERMAGANT tackled 1200m for the first time this prep in the BM85 at Eagle Farm. She settled off pace and never really came into it running some of the slowest late sectionals of the race. She’s better than this but to be fair this could be another one that is better suited back in trip and if they go back in distance next start, be prepared for sharp improvement. The rider also reported she didn’t appreciate the firm Eagle Farm surface.
One of the better wins seen by a Proven horse recently was KING’S SECRET at Rosehill on Saturday. PRIVATE EYE’s little brother was forced to settle wide without cover, which at Rosehill over sprint trips is generally a suicide mission. But he kept finding under pressure and was able beat standard time by more than 1L with his last 200m also above standard and ranking 6th for the day. He’s got a long way to go to reach the dizzy heights of his illustrious brother but this win showed grit and there’s definitely some ability under the bonnet. Those two traits will take him through the grades.
Finally, at Caulfield, THE BLACK CLOUD was looking to keep her unbeaten Melbourne record intact when she stepped out over 1100m in a BM84. A heavily backed favourite, THE BLACK CLOUD sat on speed and was beaten narrowly by the only horse that had the ratings to match.
That’s it from me this season with the column going into hibernation until the Group 1 racing starts up again.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.