He may be one of the outsiders in Saturday’s G1 Metropolitan Handicap (2400m) but FLYING BANDIT had little hope of winning at Rosehill last weekend.
After missing a run in the Kingston Town Stakes, a race that has provided the last 4 Metropolitan winners, FLYING BANDIT had to lump 60.5kg second-up in a BM88 over 1900m. He was 4L off an even tempo at the 600m and from there his individual splits read 11.52, 11.40, 11.42. If you don’t know, that’s slick for horses at this distance. But he made no impression. His last 200m was the best of the race but he was still beaten 5L. So how does this happen?
White hot track. The management of a Saturday metropolitan meeting needs to be better. Getting the track condition wrong at the start of the day is one thing but to not upgrade it when the clock is screaming Good 3 is simply unacceptable. For what it’s worth I’ve got the track a 2.8, which means its faster than your average Good 3 and only a fraction away from being a Firm 2.
When tracks get rock-hard its difficult to make ground unless the leaders get tired. So in an evenly run race as FLYING BANDIT’s was, off-pace runners have next to no hope. In Japan, they run on hard tracks frequently. Because it’s a frequent occurrence, jockeys know not to hand a soft lead to anyone. Race tempo is quicker, overall times are faster and the industry learns who is the superior horse at a certain distance.
In Australia, we water tracks to make them race slower. In turn, jockeys don’t push for the lead as much, tempo slackens resulting in a sprint home where all we learn is who had the biggest turn of foot, not who can run the fastest overall time. And then we complain how the Japanese or Europeans dominate our staying races.
Worse still, we bag pacemakers. From a ratings perspective, the highest rated performances are always in the fastest run races. Last year’s Cox Plate was run at a frenetic tempo, VIA SISTINA wins and rates through the roof. What was sad, although not incorrect, was the post race discussion by ratings guys like myself saying the track was white hot and you can’t fully trust the rating. How did we end up in a place where a bone dry track is something to be cautious of? Apparently animal welfare. Well then, last Saturday at Rosehill on a white hot track we had two horses pull up 1/5 lame. A fortnight earlier, same track but on Soft 7 going, we had one horse pull up 2/5 lame. You wouldn’t base an industry decision of this magnitude on two meetings. But has anyone seen the results of a larger sample size?
Anyway back to FLYING BANDIT. The query for him is going from 1900m to 2400m at only his third run for the prep. At least he got to 2400m last prep and this isn’t his first go at the trip. But that lone run at 2400m was no guide. He was on a very heavy track, over-raced and it was an end of prep run. His Wagga Cup win in May was very good. And both runs this prep suggest he’s come on again.
Ideally, he won’t be too far back. Following ETNA ROSSO would be a nice spot for him. I like the Newcastle Cup form with SOUL OF SPAIN and ROYAL SUPREMACY. The former is a sharper galloper but I suspect the latter will relish more tempo and an extra 100m on what he got at Newcastle. The last Metrop winner to come through the Newcastle Gold Cup was GLENCADAM GOLD in 2012.
SECOND SUN got the week underway on Wednesday at Eagle Farm. It looked his race, talking through my pocket, but a very smart ride on the winner, VALIMI, has got us beat here. We were third-up coming out of a slowly run mile race and Brandon Larena made us work the whole way. Despite looming like the winner, VALIMI was fitter for that type of test and we had to settle for second. Our time will come.
MOONFLEET was stretched out to 1600m at the Sunshine Coast on Friday night but failed to fire in a slowly run affair. Maybe 26 days between runs found her out?
Finally, BEIWACHT’s Golden Rose victory produced a rating more than 2L above what any horse in his crop has done since they started racing one year ago this weekend. If Chris Waller’s colt runs that number again this spring, they won’t beat him. I’d say they’ll go straight to the Coolmore Stud Stakes, the only horse to complete the Golden Rose – Coolmore Stud Stakes double was ZOUSTAR, also trained by Waller.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.