A frustrating week for the team witnessed seven top four finishes from nine runners.
That said, the prizemoney bagged will pay the bill and some. And we’d rather have horses finishing in the top four than bottom four. But it’s a punters’ right to lament. And some of these defeats could’ve easily been victories.
Take LARADO for example. He went around a heavily backed $1.20 favourite in a Class 1 1000m contest at Eagle Farm on Saturday. He was last out of the barriers before mustering to sit outside the lead. The tardy start left jockey Daniel Moor thinking he needed a breather. That saw LARADO go nearly half a second slower between the 800m and 600m than he did on debut over the same trip. When you study this galloper’s times its evident he runs his rivals into the ground. He’s not a sit and sprint horse. His first 600m on Saturday was clocked in 35.16 compared to 34.38 on debut. To be fair, his last 200m on Saturday was more than half a second slower than on debut suggesting he might’ve gone a tad flat after an epic debut.
The week began at Doomben on Wednesday with TINTAURA resuming over 1200m. It was a breakneck speed where the leader went through the first half more than 10L above standard. She ran home into 5th and will take good benefit from this with longer distances in mind. Maybe an easier target.
Moor allowed SHOT OF WHISKEY to stride to the front in his BM75 1200m contest, which is generally where this gelding prefers to be. He controlled the tempo nicely going 5L below standard through the first section but his dash wasn’t enough for PARETO, with half a length splitting the pair on the line.
Grand campaigner PRIVATE EYE lined up in the 7 Stakes at Randwick on Saturday over 1600m. He sat outside LINDERMANN, who set an even tempo but the pace was probably a fraction too slow to hold out FANGIRL, who has superior dash to these. LINDERMANN went a similar pace in the Chelmsford Stakes a fortnight ago but the difference is SIR DELIUS is a 2400m galloper, whereas FANGIRL is a sprinter-miler. PRIVATE EYE finished 4th but his overall time of 1.35:5 is bang on average for this class of race. For mine, he’s the perfect horse to back off and go to Melbourne for the CF Orr Stakes after the Melbourne Cup carnival is over.
Earlier in the day, OTONO again found a slowly run race and again was outsprinted. This galloper is desperate for tempo and the 4L below standard they went in the Midway 1600m race was too slow for her. You’d be cautious about backing her up in trip in a fast run race as she’s yet to get much out of her two starts this prep.
Whipping back up to Eagle Farm, and a horse I have a bit of time for ROCK THE SUNRISE struck the fast tempo he needed but he was nutted in the last 50m. The Class 2 1400m contest was run 10L above standard and ROCK THE SUNRISE was handy settling 4th on the rail. His raw speed per furlong was around half a second faster through the first second. That’s 3L per 200m. No wonder he got tired late.
TAKE A BOW finished 4th in the BM65 1200m event won by GRAMMAR LAD. She loved the genuine tempo and her overall time was still the best part of 3L above standard meaning she could easily win a race of this nature soon, providing she jumps on terms.
We gave HEYOKA a push at double figure odds in our pre-race preview of the Class 4 1200m race at the Gold Coast. She wanted to lay in up the straight but was game finishing 3rd beaten three-quarters of a length as an $18 chance. She looks ready for 1400m now.
Finally on Sunday, SMUDGED was placed after trying to lead all the way in her Class 1 1300m contest. If you remove the 3 x 1000m races on the card, her race produced the fastest last 600m on the card.
Just on the Group 1s, SIR DELIUS didn’t run fast time winning the Underwood Stakes but you can’t expect a Melbourne Cup aspirant to clock slick sectionals at the backend of a slowly run 1800m race. SEPALS won a fast run Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. I’d be following the runner-up MISS ROUMBINI if she lines up in the G2 Tristarc Stakes (1400m) during Caulfield’s carnival. Speaking of Caulfield, it’ll take a good horse to beat HALF YOURS in the Caulfield Cup. I suggested to listeners on The Monday Podcast that I’ve taken $67 about him doing the Cups double. I see that price is still there on Tuesday. Suggest you have something on.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.