That is the question futures punters are asking themselves following Saturday’s G1 Doomben Cup. And rightly so too. This prep is the first time we’ve seen ANTINO at a longer trip. As it stands, his only two runs beyond a mile have resulted in two dominant weight-for-age victories. One at G2 level over 1800m then a G1 2000m with a combined margin of 7.5L.
The Cox Plate over 2040m is the pinnacle of weight-for-age racing in Australasia. 2025 will showcase the last Cox Plate at Moonee Valley as we know it. The tight-turns demand a lot from horses, with par times often greater than rival tracks meaning whatever the distance, most races take longer to run at The Valley. It’s a testing 2040m, rarely do we see a miler win a Cox Plate. Think LONHRO. He could beat one of the greats in SUNLINE over 2000m at Caulfield but The Valley takes less prisoners and there he struggled with a 3rd placing his best effort from multiple attempts.
We know VIA SISTINA handles The Valley after her remarkable victory in the Cox Plate last year where she smashed the record books. But I’m yet to meet a ratings expert out there who thinks she’ll get back to that level, ever. Her four runs in the autumn rated about 3 to 4L off her Cox Plate demolition. ANTINO is about 2L off those figures but most middle distance horses get better with a run/prep at the new distance range. Chris Waller is a creature of habit. VIA SISTINA went via the Turnbull Stakes last year. She will almost certainly do the same again. Surely Tony Gollan takes ANTINO through the Caulfield Stakes?
This weekend we have a pair of G1s with the Queensland Derby and Kingsford Smith Cup both run at Eagle Farm. Here’s a stat for you – every Queensland Derby winner since SHOOTOFF in 2011 was placed in their final lead-up run.
The week for Proven Thoroughbreds started at Warwick Farm last Wednesday with LITTLE COINTREAU, who ran a gallant 3rd after over racing and being held-up. Dropping back 100m in trip was tough given the pedestrian tempo, where they went through the first 700m 5L below standard. He could easily improve into a faster-run race on top of the ground.
Friday saw connections of INDEFENSIBLE celebrate a Maiden win at the Acton track in Canberra. The daughter of ALL TOO HARD produced the best last 800m and 600m of the day to win in a slick 1.02:82, which is almost 5L above standard for Maiden races.
The each-way backers were in the foetal position on Saturday when ELIVINA looked destined for 3rd at $41 before being pipped on the line. The BM72 1800m contest at Randwick was a potential Oaks test/qualifier. Her 4th placing was commendable given she reeled off the 8th fastest last 200m of the day. The winner, LETS FLY produced the best figures of the day relative to class expectations and ELIVINA’s performance here was super. It would certainly be a shame if she doesn’t make the Queensland Oaks field because she’d be a Top 4 chance.
Jamie Melham jumped off the promising ACCREDITED telling stewards she wasn’t overly happy with his action when unplaced in the BM100 (1400m) at Sandown Hillside. Heavily backed, ACCREDITED camped just off a hot tempo set by OSCAR’S FORTUNE, who went through the first 800m about 5L above standard. But he couldn’t stick it out when coming home his last 200m in 12.86, some 5L below standard. This run was too bad to be true and a must forgive for when he goes back to clockwise racing in NSW.
Hot off the press comes COLUMBIA BLUE, who won at Hawkesbury on Tuesday. He backed up a terrific debut with an all the way victory by 2.5L. His winning time of 58.77 was quicker than the BM64 later in the day.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.