Given AELIANA was having her first go at 2400m and just her second run beyond 2000m, its safe to say Australia has a new staying star following the filly’s ATC Derby romp.
Off a genuine tempo, AELIANA began to creep to the front shortly after they straightened and for 100m or so she was simply holding a margin. But like every top shelf stayer, she drew away from her rivals for a 5L win in good time. Her last 200m was her best when compared to benchmark figures, which means there was more up the sleeve. Scary. Some say the current crop of staying three-year-olds aren’t much chop. I’d tell them to have a look who won last year’s Melbourne Cup and then have an internal conversation about whether you need to be MAKYBE DIVA to win the Cup anymore. It raises an important topic for discussion – how do we fix our staying ranks?
The appeal of two-year-old racing is hard to resist. Buy now, race within months, then sell and go again. The excitement is continuous not to mention economically appealing. Meanwhile, those that choose a stayer at the sales are often left paying bills for two years before they have their first start. Perhaps the solution is to offer handsome prizemoney for Maiden races over 1800m+? A standard bush race in NSW is worth $27k with the winner taking home just shy of $14k. What if you offered a 100% boost to just the first prize so now if you win a staying bush maiden you collect $28k? Wednesday metro racing would bump from $28k to $56k if you win a maiden over 1800m+. Keep in mind there’s no more than one of these each week in town and maybe two or three in the bush, which equates to roughly $60k per week or $3mil per year. Things wouldn’t change overnight, it would take at least 5 to 10 years but once its changed, it’ll be right for good. That’s better than settling for imported European horses, who dominate our major G1 races.
Saturday’s Sydney Cup has 23 acceptors – 19 European-bred, 3 from NZ and 1 “Aussie”, ZARDOZI – the product of a DUBAWI mare served by British stallion KINGMAN on southern hemisphere time. There’s nothing wrong with bringing bloodlines from around the world to Australia. Yulong are importing European mares that will change our stamina lines forever. But they have access to cash that most don’t so we need a broader solution that encourages people to breed stayers. And you do that by incentivising buyers.
Speaking of Yulong, keep an eye out for a horse called SOFT LOVE who won at Caulfield on Saturday. She clocked the fastest last 600m of the day extending her unbeaten record to three. The daughter of PIERATA was coming from a Bendigo BM64 and beat standard time by more than 1L with her last 200m in a slick 10.96 suggests she could’ve gone at least 2L faster. She looks a Group horse and if they take her to Queensland she would be my early Stradbroke Handicap tip.
As for this weekend, there is no doubt ALACANCE is the horse to beat in the Sydney Cup. But I find the $71/$17 available for CLEVELAND remarkably good. He was strong behind her when resuming in the Manion Cup (2400m), meets her 2.5kg better at the weights and surely is the big improver?
Wide barriers saw Proven Thoroughbreds scratch a few over the last week, which began with FORTUNEER at Warwick Farm last Wednesday. She has the talent but raced below her best and the team has elected to sell her online. I must say, I think she races best on the fresh side over the shorter trips.
TAKE A BOW made the quantum leap from BM70 racing to a 3YO Open at Eagle Farm. She was far from disgraced when 6th beaten 2.1L by BOOMTOWN BOSS. The overall time of 1.11:34 was slow but the tempo didn’t allow for a fast time. The winner looks smart and is definitely the horse to follow out of the race but TAKE A BOW clocked the 2nd fastest last 200m of the race and should be right to have a crack at a similar race again soon although things in Brisbane only get tougher from here on in.
I thought CARTWHEELS had found the right race on Sunday then our Track Report came through saying on pace runners would be suited and the inside lanes bar lane 1 were as good as any. That meant for a backmarker, we’d have to come through the field, not around them. Nikita Berriman got a great run in transit and was able to get across heels to the widest spot without any hassle. But horses using the inner lanes kicked and we had to settle for 4th beaten 0.7L.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.