The importance of barriers can’t be emphasised enough in the assessment of a horse’s chances in a given race. ELLE HUDSON’s first win in 18 months at Newcastle Tuesday was due in no small part to the coveted one alley.
Conversely the outside gate for HINZEL was more of a hindrance in his second placing on the same day. This weekend some more wide barriers look likely to disadvantage our runners.
COLUMBIA BLUE (16 of 18), PROXIMA CENTAURI (11 of 12), BREAK FREE (10 of 13) and NAVAL TRADER (10 of 13) will all have their work cut out thanks to those poor draws. Indeed, trainer Joe Pride may well scratch the former if forecast rain doesn’t induce scratchings.
Circumstances like rain can alter patterns on the day where actually being away from the fence becomes advantageous. Time will tell.
Apart from the wide barriers, it’s a generally quiet week of runners after a tremendous burst of 6 winners in 8 days.
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SIRE ON FIRE – ST MARK’S BASILICA
Another Group 1 winner on Sunday, his second French elite victory in recent weeks that followed a Stakes double at Royal Ascot.
BLACK BOOKER – HINZEL
Cracking return to form at Newcastle Tuesday when coming from a long way back to run 2nd following a setback. Looks to have a future over slightly longer trips if he can overcome greenness.
RUNNERS THIS WEEK
Goulburn Friday July 17
Maiden Plate 1500m
PROXIMA CENTAURI
Joe Pride/Andrew Adkins
Comment: Resumed with clearly the best of her 4 runs to date, finishing 5th of 12 at Hawkesbury over 1300m on Soft ground. Likely to strike a better surface here and drops to country grade though she does have to contend with, dare we say, a wide gate.
Rosehill Saturday July 18
BM78 Handicap 1200m
COLUMBIA BLUE
Joe Pride/Nash Rawiller
Comment: Lightly raced genuine galloper who resumed with a narrow and luckless 2nd at this track a fortnight ago. Again jumps from out wide and will benefit from any rain that hits Rosehill.
Doomben Saturday July 18
NMW Handicap 1200m
BREAK FREE
Matt Hoysted/Jake Bayliss
Comment: Been in work a while but holding her form and races well at this track and distance. Will get back so not overly penalised by her ordinary draw. Very well in a race of this type.
NMW Handicap 1200m
NAVAL TRADER
Matt Hoysted/Jag Guthmann-Chester
Comment: Though well out of the money has finished strongly at both runs this campaign. Interestingly, for an experienced rising 7yo, he’s untried at this trip though gives the impression it will suit.
Gold Coast Saturday July 18
3YO Maiden Plate 1000m
CARPET RIDE
Matt Hoysted/Boris Thornton
Comment: Has had an appalling, almost laughable run of shocking gates which has delayed her resumption. Has trialled well and poised to run well when produced. Also nominated for Sunday at the Sunshine Coast
Sunshine Coast Sunday July 19
F&M Maiden Plate 1000m
CARPET RIDE
Matt Hoysted/Jake Bayliss
Comment: Has had an appalling, almost laughable run of shocking gates which has delayed her resumption. Has trialled well and poised to run well when produced. Also nominated for Saturday at the Gold Coast.
Hawkesbury Sunday July 19
C&G Maiden Plate 1100m
REAL MCCOY
Joe Pride/Jay Ford
Comment: Has revealed improvement in his trials this time in though may find this too sharp for his long-awaited debut.
