Yet again PRIVATE EYE ran his guts out with Stradbroke Handicap ratings suggesting more riches are in store for him this spring.
Tactics from Nash Rawiller were superb. He was never going to outsprint his rivals but a dual Everest placegetter has the ability to run time.
So off they went from the gates, setting a lead speed around 6L above standard and taking a lot of their opponents outside their comfort zone.
Rawiller steered the 8YO off the fence as they came into the straight and for a fleeting moment it looked like PRIVATE EYE was going to win.
But the lightly weighted SPICY MARTINI snuck up on his inside and once she headed him, he’d had enough.
The positives are he was 1L off finishing 2nd and his time for finishing 5th of 1.24:2 is bang on G1 average.
Given he carried only 2.5kg under WFA, we can safely say he’s only just below G1 time, making races like the Memsie and Winx Stakes a genuine target.
He’s likely to find one or two better in those races but catch them 80% fit and adopting similar tactics, might be enough to flip that result.
I don’t think a Sir Rupert Clark Stakes is out of the question despite it being a handicap. There’s a school of thought that if the track was dry last Saturday and the rail wasn’t off, he could’ve made things interesting – those conditions sound a lot like Caulfield during the carnival.
First-up the PB Lawrence Stakes on August 15 then 2 weeks into the Memsie Stakes then 4 weeks into Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes with a quiet trial in between back home. If a bookie offered a fair price about him running Top 5 in each, I’d take the multi.
Poor HINZEL didn’t have a hope at the Kensington track last Wednesday. Taken back from a wide gate, he was 8th at the 400m and close to 7L off the lead. Nothing came from further back than 5th on the turn to win and the furthest any winner was at that point was less than 3L.
That said, his last 200m was below standard and ranked 3rd in the race. What I noticed when doing a deep dive was the race shape was vastly different to his debut. Here, they cranked it up at the 600m whereas at Kembla in his prior run they waited until the 400m before dashing.
OPINE ran the following day at Gosford and he’s one you can follow. Nothing went right – he was dragged back and then over-raced, constantly getting his head up. Finally he was let go at the 400m and from there to the 200m he clocked the fastest sectional in the race. But the poor manners told late and his run petered out. He might be better off being allowed to use his energy or perhaps his manners will improve – likely one of those two, and either way he improves.
RULE THE NIGHT was the only other runner outside of PRIVATE YE on Saturday and while he caught us off guard on debut, there was certainly more expectation at the Gold Coast.
Beating standard time by 3.5L on debut at Doomben was always going to ensure he started short at the provincials. But punters had to take $1.35 on a bog track last weekend. It won’t go down as the most comfortable victory of all time but he was 2L inside standard and his last 200m was pretty slick.
Great to see the Socceroos beat Turkiye 2-0 on Sunday! Commentary post match was about the ugly style we played – “too defensive” even “boring” was thrown our way.
I always like to take life’s events back to horse racing. Mostly, because I love our sport and I’ve spent every day of my life thinking about horse racing since I was 12.
But also because I firmly believe punters are some of the most resilient people on the planet. Because we’re used to a stiff beat, we value an ugly win.
Imagine if every student had to punt for a year as part of their education/appreciation of life’s twists?
The tactical battle of horse racing is an excerpt of life in itself.
*You can’t run in every race (pick your battles).
* Timing is key (showing your hand early can be costly).
* A hard run can leave you flat (there’s consequences to your actions).
There’s plenty more but I’m going off on a tangent here.
Let’s park the column and pick up again next week. The Great Game.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.