What a pleasure it is to lead this article with a horse I own a share in.
OBSIDIAN DREAM is her name and smashing the clock in Hawkesbury maidens is her game.
The toe nail I bought was part of a trio of yearlings that made up my first Proven Thoroughbreds purchase.
Joe Pride was bullish from day one about her so when she got beaten a mile on debut our heads stooped. Two ok runs at the provincials saw us head to Canberra a few weeks back thinking this was her day. But it wasn’t, she ran second. Then the sectionals came out and there looked a decent reason for the defeat.
At Hawkesbury last week she drifted from $2.70 to $4 such was the support for Alnair. But that price was soon snapped up (yes I had a bit) and she started $3.30. The fitness edge gave jockey Sam Clipperton the confidence to lead. To be fair we were handed a soft time in front rating 3.8L below standard through the first 800m. But no wonder they couldn’t catch her – get a load of this. Her last 600m was more than 6L above standard and her last 200m was the best of the day.
What sparked the improvement? Three factors for mine and until we see more of her, we won’t know the weighting of each. It was the first time she struck a heavy track, the VADAMOS breed can be swimmers and she looked right at home. While the tempo wasn’t fast, what we noted was her last 200m in 11.86 was the same as Canberra where she ran on a Soft 5 over 1300m and went much slower through the first section. That could mean she isn’t a horse you want to hold up. And that makes sense because until Hawkesbury, her best run this prep was at Gosford first-up in the fastest run race she’s been in.
The day before we saw ELLE HUDSON work home nicely when resuming over 1300m at Warwick Farm. The BM72 contest was won by SANCTIFIED, who was off the map with strong formlines but the run from ELLE HUDSON was hard to miss. He clocked the 2nd fastest last 1000m of the day and the even splits he posted from the 800m suggest he will relish more ground. There’s a BM72 1600m race in two weeks then a 1900m BM72 at Canterbury a fortnight later, which he could be competitive in but it’s a shame there’s no 2200m Warwick Farm races after that as they look ideal for the grey. No doubt Joe will find something.
LOVE REBEL possibly didn’t handle the Soft ground at the Gold Coast on Friday. A genuine tempo was set with the first 500m almost 3L above standard leaving runners exposed. Not one horse in this field ran its last 200m above standard and the overall time was slow. This was a poor race from a ratings perspective.
SEISMIC BOOM possibly should’ve won at the Sunshine Coast on Sunday. Held up for most of the straight, she can be forgiven for this run. The race rated ok, almost bang on average for BM58s here but I’d be cautious about backing her in anything tougher than this at her next run.
At the same meeting SUMMER VIBE made his debut over 1000m. He seemed to have his chance over the 1000m but wasn’t good enough. Pedigree suggests he’ll improve with time, perhaps whatever he does this prep is a bonus on what’s to come? He’d need to improve to win a Sunny Coast maiden as this race didn’t rate very well and he was comfortably beaten. But at this stage of a horse’s career they can improve drastically.
What did you make of the Doomben Cup? I’ve been asked many times by the very people I told 2000m was not BIRDMAN’s optimum distance. Perhaps I’ve become stubborn in my greying years but I standby that comment. PRIDE OF JENNI has rated about 6L below her usual peak each prep and got beaten 2.7L. The race itself was almost 2L below standard and nothing broke standard time for the last 200m. The Q22 is there for a leftfield entry.
Proven’s flagship horse PRIVATE EYE returns off a freshen in Saturday’s Group 1 Kingsford Smith Stakes (1300m) at Eagle Farm. I like him fresh and I like the fact his main opposition have drawn wide. JIMMYSSTAR and FANGIRL are the class gallopers with the biggest recent peak ratings in the field and the early mail is the fence will be off on Saturday. But sometimes when the fence is cast the pace in races drop and that could play nicely into PRIVATE EYE’s hands or hooves.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.