The ability to run time from the front is what most punters gravitate to and it’s the reason TOWN CRIER notched his 7th win last week.
Nation-wide, around 20% of leaders go on to win their race. It’s the most successful in-run position when assessing winning strike rate.
Sometimes you’ll hear me discuss profitability via the line “beating market expectations” when I’m podcasting or doing my weekly Foxcatcher show with astute judge Jules Vallance. Jules loves to discuss position in run versus market expectation – you will hear him say something like “Backmarkers are actually performing better than market expectations”. That means there is profit to be made in betting on backmarkers at that track when the rail is in that position.
What it doesn’t mean, is that backmarkers will win more races than leaders. Jules is simply looking for profitability in his speed map – which is exactly what most punters will do to find their edge.
Parking profitability for a moment, we rarely see tracks/rail positions where backmarkers have a better winning strike rate than leaders/on pacers.
Occasionally at Flemington or Randwick the mid-runners will strike higher than the lead pack. Scone last Saturday is a great example of a one-off. Only 2 winners were within 2L of the lead at the 600m. One-offs will happen but trustworthy data comes from large samples sizes and those large samples are almost always in favour of on pacers.
So when people say to me “Why does Gai Waterhouse send all her horses to the front?” The answer is simple, because she understands the benefit of being on or near the lead. From 1992 to 2016 (before partnership with Adrian Bott), Gai had more than 18,000 runners and struck at 19%. And since Bott came on board its held at 18%.
TOWN CRIER has settled in the top 4 in 19 of his 22 starts. The 3 runs he wasn’t on pace? You guessed it, didn’t place in any of them.
Last week at Ipswich he led and was beautifully rated going just above standard through his first 500m and came home just above meaning overall time was inside standard but at no point was he gassed. For his rivals, it meant to lead him they would’ve had to go well above standard and to catch him they’d need to come quick off a pace that never really let up. This was the perfect frontrunning ride by apprentice Fiona Sandkuhl.
Stablemate BREAK FREE was one of those horses chasing TOWN CRIER. She was the more favoured of the two and there was nothing wrong with her ride, nor her finishing sectionals. She clocked the 3rd fastest last 200m at the meeting but TOWN CRIER wasn’t stopping and that made her job just too tough. This is a great example of how gate speed and map position determines the outcome of races more than ability. If you asked me which horse has more ability, I’d say BREAK FREE. But that’s provided she gets an above standard tempo and a clear crack at them – two factors you won’t get in a lot of races.
I wonder if BROADWAY STREET went flat off that big first-up win? He looked disappointing last Saturday when finishing 7th in a Class 1 over the same track and distance he broke his maiden at less than two weeks earlier. This run rated 2L below his first-up win but I’d be inclined to forgive him as many horses that rate well fresh go flat at their next run, particularly on a rain-affected track.
THE BLACK CLOUD finished 6th to CIGAR FLICK in the Listed Bright Shadow at Doomben. The winner produced the fastest last 800, 600, 400 and 200m at the meeting while posting a time that was 4L inside standard. THE BLACK CLOUD was trying to get off the rail for parts of the straight. Her time was bang on average so we walk away knowing this was the right race but things didn’t pan out.
FLYING BANDIT finished down the track in the Listed Andrew Ramsden at Flemington. The winner ZAKOUMA might be one to follow clocking fast overall time. Perhaps the Bandit could target country cups where the weight scale suits?
WEEKDAY FLYER simply had no hope settling 7th over a mile at Kembla where the leader went through the first 1000m 11L below standard. Would like to see her again in a faster run race.
A faster tempo unfortunately saw SOUTHERN GRACE lose by more. Second run up to 1200m proved too much and old mate WILD THOUGHTS does what WILD THOUGHTS does best – makes you think a win is coming. He clocked the best last 800, 600 and 400m of the race but the reality is the pace was fast and his overall time was still outside standard.
Great to see ROTHFIRE win a G1 as an 8YO after winning the JJ Atkins when it was 1400m. As Proven tweeted shortly after the race, he’s now the 6th 8yo Group 1 winner this season…and 8yo mare PRIDE OF JENNI is the early favourite for this Saturday’s Doomben Cup (2000m)!
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.