Two 3yos broke their maiden over the weekend in stylish fashion while another looks destined to do the same next start.
Most of you are punters so I’ll start by discussing the horse who can win next start – WEEKDAY FLYER.
She ran at Kembla on Saturday in a 1400m maiden. To the eye she looked good coming from near last and clocking the best last 200m of the race to grab 2nd.
When you pick up the sectionals, things don’t look as good at first glance. Overall time almost 3L below standard, last 200m just below standard and race pace only moderate – that combination usually makes a ratings analyst say “pass” when deciding whether to blackbook a horse. But her data is showing the signs of a horse that simply is racing over distances too short. Her sectionals are flat, meaning there is no zip, or at least not at 1400m. Add to that she sat off pace and its very difficult for a horse with this profile to win a race of this shape.
If she backs up in Saturday’s Midway Mile at Kembla, I think you can wager on her. These TRAPEZE ARTIST’s seem to get a bit of ground and she strikes me as a horse that will get the maiden out of the way this prep and then climb the ranks next time in.
The week began on a winning note with MEASURE UP winning at Warwick on Thursday. A son of tough filly TEASPOON, he parked third the fence in his 1200m maiden. He got the split at the top of the straight and staved off favoured runner SWITZ. Bang on average time for the grade suggests this gelding was well placed by Matt Hoysted. It was MEASURE UP’s second start after a decent debut at the Sunshine Coast. Coming out of that same Sunny Coast maiden was PONTEVICO. He went back to the Sunny Coast on Sunday for a 1200m maiden and drew wide. Boris Thornton had no option but to go back to last but the pace was on. At this point I should confess two things – I have a small share in this bargain buy and I made the entire table at Mother’s Day lunch watch the race.
Last week I wrote about my early years in racing and searching for horses that ran last to first – well my first winner with Proven Thoroughbreds happened days later with PONTEVICO who ate up a fast tempo to come from last on the turn and win. Quite amazing. And of course this week’s article is about how I’ve always wanted to win 7 Group 1 races in a single season plus the Everest.
Back to slightly less lofty circumstances. PONTEVICO charged home for a commanding win and you’d have to say he’s got a future – pleasing for a $50k buy.
Just two days earlier OBSIDIAN DREAM finished 2nd at Canberra over 1300m. While somewhat disappointing on face value – I dug deep on her data and noticed an excuse. She had averaged 11.6 and 11.5 through the first section of her two runs this time in and then on Friday her first section average speed was a leisurely 12.6 – she simply didn’t have the zip in her legs for that tempo after two hard runs and 13 days between races. Give her another chance around the 1400m distance range.
On Saturday night SEISMIC BOOM was 4th in an 1100m BM60 at Toowoomba. They broke standard time and she can be competitive in a similar contest next start. Her closing splits suggest she’s wanting another gallop soon.
Ratings suggest this year’s Goodwood was below par, with DESERT LIGHTNING defeating the heavily backed EXTRAGALACTIC. The latter has upside but how she gets treated by the handicapper for this effort may determine her future.
I’d like to see handicappers use ratings more often. Ratings, essentially, determine the market – bookies use ratings to set the market and then big punters with huge amounts of data will come over the top and correct the market. There are some bookies who let a winning punter bet only so they can reset the price once he/she does. Almost every astute punter I know has a database of some description that rates horses and in most instances, those ratings produce a price that subsequently gets compared to what is on offer in the marketplace.
That’s a great segue to suggest having something on the $15 about PRIVATE EYE in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben 10000. In fact, you could take some of the $3 for JIMMYSSTAR too. My ratings suggest PRIVATE EYE is an $8 chance and we have JIMMYSSTAR a tad shorter.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.