If fairy godmother said “your horse will get beaten 1L” in a Group 1, plenty would be happy.
Now imagine having two runners and both finish 1L from the winner. Slightly disappointed one of them didn’t win (that’s the perfectionist in you) but otherwise over the moon at the thrill of going so close. Then godmother leans in and whispers “but they came 8th and 9th”. That’s what unfolded at Rosehill on Saturday afternoon.
IN FLIGHT and THE BLACK CLOUD made the brave call to have a crack at The Galaxy. Fortune is supposed to favour the brave but it most certainly didn’t here. Firstly, every black cloud in the southern hemisphere was hovering around Sydney on the weekend, except Rosehill. These two Proven mares are traditional mudlarks. Between them they’ve had 24 starts on wet tracks for 12 wins. In fact, they’ve finished in the Quinella in 21 of their 24 mud runs. Come Galaxy-time, the track was Soft 5 – not wet enough and punters rightly sent them out $41 and $31 respectively.
The race didn’t rate overly well though it must be said. IN FLIGHT had to wait a stride or two longer than ideal before getting clear in the straight. She perhaps should’ve placed but it is tough to see a G1 in the near future that would suit either of these. Certainly, the Listed Ortensia Stakes (1100m) at Scone during their May carnival would be an appropriate target for IN FLIGHT.
COSMONOVA had a bit too much to do on a fast tempo in the G3 Birthday Card Stakes (1200m). The first half rated 2.5L above standard and she was travelling 2nd. Her average split for the first 600m was 11.9 – too slick for her at 1200m. Maybe 1100m she gets away with it but to run out the 6 furlongs, she needs 12.0+ as her idle speed. Don’t drop off her.
WILD THOUGHTS was better when 4th in the Midway (1500m). He was coming off a stinker at Hawkesbury. Here he settled 11th on a day where 7 of the 10 winners were in the top 6. His effort to finish 1L off BARRENGARRY clocking the 2nd fastest final section of the race was super. Look for him to peak next run.
MELTDOWN started $17 in his Eagle Farm assignment and did himself no favours by over racing in the BM70 mile contest. The race rated above average for the grade and should he find a softer target next run he is a massive chance to bounce back into the winners circle, particularly over a touch further.
My apologies to the owners of FLYING BANDIT — I owe you a pre-race report, so let me walk you through his Albury Cup run.
BEAR ON THE LOOSE rolled along at a genuine clip in front, averaging 12.2s per 200m through the first 1400m — that’s roughly 5 lengths above standard and ensured this was a proper staying test.
After a slow beginning, the BANDIT stayed closer to the fence using lane 4. Only one winner on the card was inside lane 6. His last 600m was more than 2L above standard and Jay Ford suggested he didn’t enjoy the wet ground. I understand he’s going to the Chairman’s Handicap next week which will give us a good guide on his staying credentials.
Who stole the show at Rosehill – J Mac or AUTUMN GLOW? As good as she was, I think James McDonald becoming the number one Group 1 rider we’ve seen tops her feats.
Now we know AUTUMN GLOW runs next in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes – she tackles 2000m for the first time. The decision is a good one. Right before the announcement, she was $1.80 for the QE and $2.60 in the Doncaster Mile. The Doncaster is worth $1million less. On what metric does it make sense for AUTUMN GLOW to run in the Doncaster? Theatre, so we can find out who the best horse is. And we need theatre in racing. The problem is programming doesn’t factor in theatre anymore. If you actually sit down and look at the G1 calendar, there’s so many instances where the best two horses in a given distance-range can make more money by avoiding one another. Our sport is simple – who is the best horse in this race? The system is supposed to force the best horses to race each other. That’s the whole point of this sport – to find out who the best horses are. Because the programming is so cast, we don’t have the clashes we need. Turnover drops. Racing loses. But somehow the people who make these decisions keep getting paid.
KINGS SECRET is weighted to win in Saturday’s Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m). If he draws in the first 6, he should be winning albeit I have huge respect for GANGSTA GRANNY.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.