Two Proven runners went down as odds on favourites over the weekend while another shorty extended her unbeaten streak to 10.
AUTUMN GLOW is now being labelled the next WINX after winning the Group 1 Verry Elleegant Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. We’ll touch on what I believe is the obvious challenge for her in a moment. But let’s take a look at what happened to MOVER AND SHAKER and EMPHATIQUE, who both started in the red for their respective contests at Sapphire Coast and Gold Coast and both were beaten.
EMPHATIQUE was beautifully placed in her maiden by Matt Hoysted. She was a ratings standout with one query – first go 1400m on a bog track.
The horse was fine in the conditions and ran out the trip. Yes, some will say she led and got run down therefore shorter trip = victory? That’s not quite how it works. And what happened to EMPHATIQUE on Saturday is more about mind games than ability.
She led through the first 800m running 1.6 lengths above standard. The next two splits came right off the boil — 2.5 lengths below standard — before she lifted again late to finish with a final section back above standard.
That’s the classic “mid-race slowdown” shape: go hard early, pinch a breather mid-race, then try to kick again late. It takes a very specific horse to pull it off. Most burn fuel to find the front, back it off, and end up handing the race back without really making their rivals chase.
We see it regularly when on-pacers step up in trip. The big query is always whether they’ll run the distance, so the ride becomes about managing that risk — conserving enough mid-race so the stamina test doesn’t expose them late.
EMPHATIQUE ran the fastest last 200m of the race. A genuine tempo through and she wins.
Twenty-fours later MOVER AND SHAKER was beaten as the $1.85 favourite for a 1000m maiden at the Sapphire Coast. But her excuse was far less complicated – she missed the start hopelessly and did a commendable job to finish within 4L of the winner.
Back to Saturday and we had BREAK FREE up at Eagle Farm. The mare was lining up in a BM78 event with 1200m on a testing track being the query. Things couldn’t have gone better, she jumped well and they went 10L below standard through the first 600m. She was there when the whips were cracking and for a brief moment it looked as though she’d poke through and go on with it. But her final section was weak given the dawdling tempo. Her individual splits from the 800m were 11.68 – 10.96 – 11.02 – 12.18. Her 400-200m split was more than 6L faster than the next. The data shows 1000m is her preferable trip.
Futures punters, lend me your ears.
AUTUMN GLOW heads markets for the Doncaster Mile, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Queen of the Turf Stakes but logic says she only runs in one.
Here’s the stutter. In past campaigns she has rated down third or fourth-up on what she did in her first two runs of the prep. That can be explained — she was younger, less seasoned, and many mares improve with maturity. But it’s also the faint outline of a pattern. And with an unbeaten mare, patterns matter.
She lines up next in the George Ryder Stakes on March 21. On the same program, AELIANA and SIR DELIUS contest the Ranvet Stakes (2000m). What she does there — and more importantly, the margin and shape of the win if she gets the job done — will give Chris Waller his clearest steer.
Then there’s the three-year-old layer: AUTUMN BOY, ATTICA and SHEZA ALIBI. All three are tracking towards the Randwick Guineas, although the latter looks tailor-made for the Coolmore Classic. In a Doncaster, they’d meet AUTUMN GLOW significantly better at the weights under handicap conditions than they would at weight-for-age. That’s a key fork in the road for futures players.
If you’re asking which race she simply goes and wins? On paper it’s the Queen Of The Turf.
Normally you throw any horse into the deep end and find out how good they are. But when the record reads perfect, there’s another lever at play — protection. Connections don’t just manage campaigns; they manage reputations and hers is getting plenty of attention.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.