While many call it the ‘Sport Of Kings’, punters will tell you thoroughbred racing is the “Game Of Inches”.
And sorry to say gents but size does matter. Just ask CHAMPAGNE LANE. Another inch on her pecker and she’d be a stakes-placed filly right now.
The Listed Mode Stakes (1200m) at Doomben shaped as a stern test for the three-year-old, who was yet to prove herself at 1200m. Each of her victories were over 1000m at the roomy Sunshine Coast – vastly different from Doomben’s tighter circuit. Her get-back run-on pattern would be put to the test – how good is this filly?
The data can do the talking. Her last 600m was 6L above Listed standard and she clocked the fastest last 200m of the day – not bad for a horse that won a BM58 earlier this prep. With the pleasantries out of the way, here’s what appears to be the only concern. The race pace was 3L below standard and she was around 5L off them. This race shape relied on speed with very little required in the stamina department. I believe this played into the hands of CHAMPAGNE LANE. Despite what some pundits might say, I’m not convinced a faster tempo or another 200m would’ve seen her victorious. But what I will say is that her ratings are on a huge upward spiral and she can certainly win a stakes race at some point.
The week for Proven began with OBSIDIAN DREAM making her debut at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Bred to get over longer, the 1000m was always thought to be a risk but this filly had to start somewhere and being so immature, the shorter trip was the preferred option. She began well and probably gave Jay Ford the confidence to keep her handy. But her final 400m was almost 5L below standard and up the straight she was greener then Cheech and Chong. The winner of that race, ICE KOOL, looked well above average, busting standard time by 5L and clocking the best last 400m of the day.
The second fastest last 400m of the day belonged to INDEFENSIBLE, who finished runner-up in the BM72 over 1000m. She was second-up and sat last in a 5-horse race before charging to the line. They ran slick time with SWORDPLAY 3L inside standard. Not sure what Joey Pride is thinking but three of INDEFENSIBLE’s top four ratings in her career have been over 1100m or less – she might be a speed horse that likes to camp off them and have the last crack.
I keep making excuses for OTONO, which bothers me, but again the race shape of her BM72 contest over the mile worked heavily against her. She was back from a 2000m run and they went 7L below standard through the first 1000m putting her out of contention – she needed more of a test. That’s now 5 of her 6 runs this prep where the tempo has been below average and worked against her.
Chasing the drift is something I love doing on the punt. It’s won me a lot of over the years. For those new to this game, here’s how it unfolded last Wednesday with ICONIC TREASURE, who was second-up in the BM72 1200m race. Bookies put up $41. Our intel said the rail would be off (4 of 6 winners in Lanes 5+), wide draw ok then so I had a nibble. He shortened up initially but then as the day became hard to make ground he started drifting. I ended up backing him 4 times, the last at $81 (each-way of course). He produced the best split of the race between the 600m and 400m and at the top of the straight I thought a top 3 finish was on the cards. But he weakened a tad to finish 6th beaten under 3L. He’ll win another race soon.
LOVE REBEL in the famous Cook jacket (and Proven cap) made her debut at the Sunny Coast on Friday night. She sat last over 1100m and quickened nicely to grab 2nd with her last 200m sneaking into the Top 10 for the night. The race didn’t rate that well but she can only improve off this and if Matt finds something similar, she can win next start.
It was easy to see ELIVINA was having her second run at 1400m when she stepped out at the Kenso track. There was a bit of zip to her performance first-up at Kembla but like a true staying type, she went dour at her second run and could only manage 7th in this BM64 assignment. I wonder if the team can sneak her into the Magic Millions staying race? Pie in the sky stuff but why not?
Last but certainly not least BROADWAY STREET made his debut at Hawkesbury on Sunday. He drew an inside pole and was given a dig to hold a spot on the leader’s back. They dawdled in front going almost 12L below standard through the first 700m. The pace never really went on and the strongest section relative to standard times was the last 200m. This was not the race shape that would suit a horse of his profile. I understand he is going for a spell now so look out for him when he returns in a few months’ time.
Hope some of you who read last week’s column took a bit of the $8.50 about COSMIC CRUSADER in the G1 Northerly Stakes. The Ascot feature last weekend showed what this galloper is capable of. The overall time was almost 10L inside standard and his last 200m was strong. His rating here suggests he’d be competitive in the eastern WFA races.
Don’t forget the Proven stalwart PRIVATE EYE will contest the Supernova at Pakenham on the stand-alone Saturday meeting this weekend. He’s extremely well placed in that and should be winning provided he’s ok after a big campaign. Then on Sunday its Hong Kong International Races where ROMANTIC WARRIOR and KA YING RISING are on show. The treble across the two days is paying around $3. That will do me.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.