KING’S SECRET looks set for a big summer campaign while ACCREDITED proved he’s not a miler at Rosehill last Saturday.
And before that all unfolded COLUMBIA BLUE won again at Wyong on Wednesday in the manner of a horse that has a bright future.
KING’S SECRET was snagged back to last from his outside gate in Saturday’s BM78 1100m contest. This start point at Rosehill is probably the trickiest of any in the Sydney metropolitan area. Being first-up, and lumped with 60.5kg, there was no option but to ride him conservatively.
The in-form LYLES set an even tempo and when handy horses aren’t forced to work over that route, they invariably prove hard to run down. That was the case again with LYLES coming up the stretch in 23.20 – enough to win.
KING’S SECRET was 2L away in third after travelling wide without cover for part of the bend. He clocked a slick 22.84 for his stretch burst – his 400m to 200m split was the 3rd fastest of the day with his data showing he peaked on his run.
Of all the Proven horses, he’s the one I think can win multiple races this summer especially if he gets down in weight. It wouldn’t surprise if he worked his way through to a stakes race before a Brisbane winter campaign next time around.
ACCREDITED had every hope of running out a strong 1500m on Saturday with a lead speed set by YORKSHIRE around 3L below standard. Andrew Adkins gave the gelding every hope but his last 200m was poor under the circumstances and it’s no surprise Pride and Proven have pulled the pin on The Ingham – he’s simply more effective at 1200m to 1400m. There’s talk of a potential trip north for the Brisbane summer carnival but he could also stay in Sydney for a couple of Listed sprint races that would suit. One thing I’ve learnt about Joe Pride over the years is his horses usually come back in trip no worries.
Going back to last Wednesday and COLUMBIA BLUE made a winning return at Wyong in a Class 1 over 1100m. He clocked 1.02:6, which is bang on average for the grade and his 600m to 400m was the quickest of the day. While the overall time wasn’t flash, there was plenty to like about this gelding’s performance and he should be winning again this prep.
At the same meeting, MIND BENDER was specked at a price and while the beaten margin of 2.5L is nothing to cry about, this was a poor race and she’ll need easier if this is her distance. The race went more than 6L outside standard time and the late splits were plain.
One of my favourite horses in the Proven stable right now is TAKE A BOW – mainly because she’s one I’ve worked out and making good money off her accordingly. She was back in the winners’ circle on Friday night at the Sunshine Coast. It’s fairly simple for her – 1000m and a run-on track. She took every inch of that long straight to win but her last 600m was 6L above standard and she clocked the fastest last 200m of the night. This was a win of style and substance. The tricky part is working out where her ceiling is. I could easily bonus her 2L to 4L for Friday night given the tempo and her last 400/200m. I’d say she’s around that BM80 level, which means we can back her again when conditions suit.
Back in 1991 when my Pa (Mum’s Dad) was teaching me to punt at the ripe old age of 12, he made sure I understood one thing. Know a horse’s ceiling and back it until it hits it. Then never back it again. Or as he’d say “it’s finished”, which sounds rather dramatic and slightly morbid, but it was his way of saying don’t put your lawn mowing money on a horse that’s weighted to its best. I mowed three lawns per day for $15 in total back then. It was borderline child labour. But the punting lessons were impossible to value.
SHOT OF WHISKEY bled at Doomben on Saturday giving us little reason to assess his performance. Get better mate!
HEYOKA found the soft track too much in her 1350m Class 6 – she’ll be better back onto dry ground.
I’m out of excuses with TINTAURA. She proved she doesn’t stay when tackling 1800m for the first time on Sunday at the Sunshine Coast. The tempo was fast but she sat well off it and after 1200m was only 1L above standard. Her last 200m alone was 5L below standard. She hasn’t figured in fast run sprint races either. Hard to place.
Elsewhere, the Winterbottom Stakes was a bit of a sit and sprint at Ascot on Saturday. LIBERTAD was good but the overall time was only fair. I doubt any of these will worry the big guns on the east coast in the autumn. The final G1 of the year is run this Saturday – the Northerly Stakes (1800m). I’m with COSMIC CRUSADER around the $8.50 mark.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.