Flemington obviously took centre stage on Melbourne Cup Day but a debutant colt by SNITZEL at Kembla Grange made sure punters were paying attention.
His name is HINZEL, and just like Hansel, he’s so hot right now.
That’s because he was nearly six lengths outside standard at the halfway mark for 1000m maidens — yet still stopped the clock more than three lengths inside it, producing the fastest final 800m, 600m and 400m splits of the entire meeting.
That’s after being held-up momentarily, racing greenly including getting his mouth open over the concluding stages. No doubt with a few quirks to iron out he’ll be taken through the grades but there’s a lot to like about HINZEL.
Last week’s column got put aside as Cup week took precedence but let’s go back to Wednesday October 29 where TINTAURA tackled a heavy track for the first time. The race was run at an even tempo but she was 4L off them at the 600m. What we’ve learnt about this mare is she lacks zip and needs a fast pace to suit her best. Though disappointing on paper, this is an inconclusive run.
The Soft 7 played against PRIVATE EYE on Saturday November 1 when he lined up in the $3milion Russell Balding (1300m). JIMMYSTAR ran good time winning the race and PRIVATE EYE was anything but disgraced in 5th. He’s found form again this spring and races around 1400m where he can put himself on pace are what looks to be his new niche. You’d have to seriously consider a swing at the G1 Futurity Stakes in Melbourne next autumn. If he’s not up to them, freshen and head to QLD for the WFA sprint races up there.
Circling back to Cup day and the promising ELIVINA resumed at Kembla. Once on a Queensland Oaks path, this now four-year-old should pick off a race or two this summer off what we saw here. She came from near last to get within a 1L of STORM SEASON, who comfortably beat standard time indicating this was an above average Class 1 contest. The 1400m should prove short of her best and she is definitely a mare to follow as she creeps up towards 2000m.
Up at Randwick on the same day, ACCREDITED resumed in a BM100 over 1100m. The Soft 6 isn’t his ideal conditions (prefers a firm deck) but he was gutsy finishing a close 2nd to ESTADIO MESTALLA, who has now beaten him in 2 of his past 3 starts. I’d be confident he can turn the tables on a dry track, which could prevail in Saturday’s The Hunter (1300m) at Newcastle. Worth noting 4 of ACCREDITED’s 7 wins have been on tempo deemed FAST. This race on Cup day was almost 9L below standard through the first 500m. He was also coming off only one trial. The point here is he had multiple things against him yet nearly won.
The only Proven horse I backed on Cup day was TAKE A BOW. To be fair I had no idea it won until my mates starting chanting and spraying me with champagne. It all felt a bit weird but then they reminded me we opened the shoulders with the kitty on TAKE A BOW and suddenly 4pm became midnight. I’m still a broken man. But not the horse, she smashed the Class standard by 6L recording the best last splits of the meeting. This is her wheelhouse – fast run 1000m races on days where you can run on.
Moving forward to last Saturday (Stakes Day) and the unbeaten CHAMPAGNE LANE over-raced at her first go at 1200m. She was jumping from BM58 to Open class for 3YOs at Eagle Farm, which was tough enough already. Her manners compounded the issue and she was beaten 5L by GRAFTERBURNERS. Coming off two runs on rain affected going, the Firm 2 track may also not have suited.
NAVAL TRADER continues to impress me each preparation. While a modest 4th looks only fair on paper, he’s gone as good as ever first-up here. He’s run the 6th fastest last 1000m of the day and will improve off this immensely.
You can put the pen through OTONO’s run at Hawkesbury on Saturday as she pulled up coughing.
Here are my Cup week highlights outside of Proven horses;
CARBINE CLUB STAKES – PANOVA went from a maiden two back to a G3 winner here and beat standard time comfortably. She clocked the 2nd fastest split of the day between the 800 and 600m and was still strong on the line. She is my early pick for the G1 Surround Stakes next autumn.
COOLMORE STUD STAKES – TENTYRIS has been one of ours in the Works Burger package for some time and we’re sticking solid he’ll be crowned best sprinter down under within 12 months. He’s clocked a blistering 10.58 between the 400-200m winning this G1 and smashed standard time in the process. The real deal.
MELBOURNE CUP – HALF YOURS proved me wrong when absorbing a fast tempo to win a high rating Melbourne Cup. How good is it to see an Aussie bred stayer not only win the race, but possibly announce himself as a genuine WFA star next year? LITZDEEL won the 2800m race in good style albeit the time was average. She is a natural stayer and will only improve, lookout 2026.
CROWN OAKS – STRICTLY BUSINESS was the training performance of the carnival going from a Ballarat 1400m maiden win to a G1 2500m victory in just 13 days. And she beat standard time by 7L in the Oaks. She could be back at Flemington next year in the big one.
I won’t be following anything out of Stakes day as the track was horrendous and I’d have serious concerns about any runner coming out of it.
Want a futures tip?
The carnival shifts to WA for a few weeks and while the world waxed lyrical about the win of KING OF LIGHT in the Fairetha Stakes (1400m), I thought the run of ROCK FEST was better. He was only first-up in this high rating race whereas the favourite/ winner was race fit. I expect ROCK FEST to win the WA Guineas and then start single figures in the G1 Northerly Stakes – the final G1 of the year. I’ve told my subs to back him at $5 and $21 in each race and to take the double, which you can get $47 about.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.