A fast run Group 3 on a track that raced quicker than its official rating proved too much for IN FLIGHT and COSMONOVA at Rosehill on Saturday.
Proven Thoroughbreds went into Saturday’s The Nivison with an “each-way bet”. Tough on pacer IN FLIGHT gave them a sight at the top end while COSMONOVA was mapped to slingshot into the race from back in the field. It shaped as a race that no matter what unfolded, Proven could be in the finish. And possibly both could be fighting it out.
But again the track raced firmer than its official rating of Good 4. The times say it was a Good 3 but similar to last meeting here, we never got an upgrade. A pattern emerged, you had to be on speed. Every winner bar one was in the top 6 at the 600m and that lone horse outside the top 6, was 7th. It was near impossible for backmarkers. Because of this, the tempo of each race lifted as jockeys knew their only chance was to roll the dice and go forward. BONITA QUEEN led The Nivison running almost 4L above standard through the first 600m.
For a horse like IN FLIGHT, who was coming off 35 days between runs, this was not the right race shape. And for COSMONOVA, she attempted to stay in touch clocking a slick 10.88 between the 600m and 400m, only 4 horses went quicker through that section all day. It meant she weakened over the concluding stages. I understand both horses have gone for a spell which looks a sensible move as you wouldn’t expect many horses to bounce out of a run like this.
I’m a big fan of bone-dry tracks that race fast. But you have to be consistent. You can’t water tracks one week then leave them alone the next. Connections of horses, and punters, deserve consistency so they can adjust their investment accordingly.
As a punter I can tell you betting on a Good 3 is quite different to a Good 4. Which means it must be different for some horses too. A key trait I look for in a horse racing on a Good 3 is its ability to absorb pressure, a lesser priority on a Good 4. That’s because races on Good 3 tracks typically are run at a faster tempo. If trainers are aware tracks will be firm unless it rains, they can train their stock accordingly. Take Japan, they race on firm tracks, train their horses to absorb pressure and run fast overall time. This is a key ingredient to their success on the global stage. In a fast run staying contest, give me a Japanese-trained galloper over anything.
Back to Proven’s week and up north on Saturday ROCK THE SUNRISE was just out of the placings in his BM70 contest over 1600m. He rated down on his previous performance. Its hard to say whether he was flat from that previous testing race or whether the mile sees him out? I’d lean to the former and would suggest he’s worth following in a similar race next time.
On Friday night at the Sunshine Coast, SMUDGED again found the podium in a BM62 1400m contest. They went 6L above standard through the first 800m paving the way for SMART SHAZZA to run quick time. Also worth noting she didn’t see much clear air in the run home.
At the same meeting, TAKE A BOW disappointed when missing the start and a drum in the BM65 over 1000m. It’s the second time she’s struck a fast tempo, both times she’s been unplaced.
TINTAURA looked ok to the eye when she just missed a place in her 1200m Maiden but the race rated poorly so its tough to see her winning a race like that in the immediate future. She’s racing like further will suit.
The Everest barrier draw has been conducted while I type this.
ANGEL CAPITAL got the draw he needed. He’s got enough ability to win an Everest but over-races and needs to find a bum quickly preferably without having to concede too much ground. He probably follows stablemates JOLIESTAR and LADY SHENANDOAH into the race. He’s got X-factor, we don’t know where the ceiling is yet with him.
Same can be said about TEMPTED. This pair are the only runners back in trip and both look suited at 1200m. With pace drawn wide, the race could be set up for a backmarker with the right foundation.
Good luck!
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.