FLYING BANDIT produced the best hidden run at Randwick on Saturday while PRIVATE EYE was his usual brave-self.
The Group 2 Tramway Stakes (1400m) was a far more suitable target for PRIVATE EYE, who also had Memsie Stakes ambitions following his PB Lawrence victory upon resumption.
The Tramway rated about 5L inferior to the Memsie with PERICLES nailing PRIVATE EYE inside the last furlong to take out the Randwick feature. The race rated about 2L below average but to be fair it was run at a moderate tempo. That said, PRIVATE EYE’s last 200m ranked 49th for the day and its unlikely he could’ve gone much quicker.
FLYING BANDIT was resuming from a staying prep in the BM94 over 1600m. This was the second best race of the day in terms of beating class expectations. The winner, SHOHISHA, beat standard time by 2L and FLYING BANDIT gave her 7.5kg not to mention he found plenty of traffic in the home straight. Stewards noted he “went to the line untested” yet still ran bang on standard time for BM94 mile races at Randwick. That should mean he’s at least up to Listed/G3 grade around this distance range when you factor in fitness and a better run in transit. He’s on target for a big spring albeit be wary of backing him second-up as he could go a tad flat.
The race of the day was the G3 Concorde Stakes (1000m) won by HEADWALL, who was lucky LADY SHENANDOAH was locked away until the 100m. Proven Thoroughbreds was represented by IN FLIGHT, who was chasing her 4th victory on the bounce. She was brave finishing 6th beaten 1.9L and to be fair I think she would’ve preferred a faster tempo and obviously some cut in the ground.
LADY SHENANDOAH for mine is the horse to beat in the Everest. I know what you’re thinking, this guy clearly doesn’t watch Hong Kong racing. But here’s the thing. I keep a database that transfers international data into an Australian rating. He’s what I call a genuine 93/94 horse with two peaks beyond that around the 96/97 mark. Those numbers mean nothing to you but I’m fairly confident LADY SHENANDOAH will hit 94/95 in the Everest. The disclaimer is that my database marks HK horses down a touch because the depth isn’t there. KA YING RISING does look one out of the box and all he can do is beat what’s in front of him. But I’d rather take $2.50 LADY SHENANDOAH to run a place than $1.70 him to win.
Proven’s week started with a bang when WATERTIGHT got the maiden out of the way at Ipswich on Wednesday. The well-bred gelding set a fast tempo over the 1100m and beat standard time by 1L.
On the same day ELLE HUDSON went around at Warwick Farm in a BM72 over 2200m where he again tried leading all the way but was nabbed late beaten 0.3L. A review of his data suggests perhaps he went too slow in front. Maybe more aggression sees him win a similar event next time?
Then on Friday COSMONOVA, our horse to follow from last week’s article, was given her chance at stakes level in the G3 Mona Lisa (1350m) at Wyong. The wide barrier has possibly cost her a valuable placing at this level. She hadn’t raced beyond 1200m and was taken back (understandably) but the wide course she charted into the race was perhaps not the best option. She probably needed an ambush-style of ride, where she tried her luck coming through the pack. Certainly, her last 200m compared to her previous run supports this.
The figures HEYOKA produced at BM78 level at Doomben on Saturday suggest she’s not quite up to that grade at this point. Off a slow tempo she barely broke standard time for the last 600m. Typically when a horse is allowed to go 6L below standard through the first section, you expect them to come home well above standard.
SECOND SUN was also a tad disappointing to the eye in his BM70 contest over 1615m. But after reviewing the race shape and his late sectionals, I’d be prepared to forgive. The field went through the first 1000m 3L below standard and he conceded the leader a fair margin. This race shape is perfect for him to springboard off and I’d suggest he could seriously turn his form around next start.
SMUDGED was beautifully placed to win on debut at the Gold Coast. She found a contest where the peak rating of the raced brigade was plain. Amazingly, she started $11 and won albeit the time was nothing flash.
Circling back to Randwick and OTONO resumed in the opener. The Midway over 1400m was a nice pipe-opener for this daughter of THE AUTUMN SUN who, off a slow tempo, ran her last 600m 4L above standard. Be wary of backing her second-up as I think she’ll be better third-up.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.