LARADO’s debut victory last Saturday has me wondering if he could be Proven Thoroughbreds’ next star?
Rarely would I say that about a Gold Coast debutant but the core of sectional analysis is times and margins and this gelding got a massive tick for both.
Clearly the team knew he had ability otherwise this now 4YO would’ve been moved on a while ago. And credit to the owners, patience is easy for trainers because they’re not paying the bills but for owners it comes at a cost.
To give you some perspective, LARADO’s 3-3/4 length romp saw the clock stop at a blistering 57.33 seconds, more than a third of a second faster than the Class 6 over the same track and trip on the same day.
The other 1000m maiden was run at 58.95, which means he would’ve beaten that winner by around 9 lengths. And they clocked 57.93 for BM60 over 1000m.
Sometimes these fast overall times are aided by a frantic tempo. And you can often see that race shape by looking at the last 600m. Here’s where things get even better for LARADO. His race came home in 33.53, the other maiden 34.87, the BM60 34.06 and the Class 6 in 33.47 – so basically, he’s come home the same speed as the Class 6 but finished 2 lengths in front of them. If he’s not the best horse that raced at the Gold Coast on Saturday, I’ll give up the punt for a year.
The question is how good is LARADO? Off my raw data, he’s Saturday benchmark grade with massive upside. Follow him.
The week for Proven kicked off with OCEAN ZAR and ROCK THE SUNRISE at Doomben on Wednesday. OCEAN ZAR, a tad zippier than her stablemate, was far more suited in this slowly run affair where they went more than 3L below standard through the first section. OCEAN ZAR got within a length of the winner despite some interference just after the 200m while ROCK THE SUNRISE simply had no hope after bounding in the air as the barriers opened. He’d be the one I follow next run.
WILD THOUGHTS was chasing the hat-trick in the Rosehill opener on Saturday but was another victim of Heavy 10 to dry. A few years ago, I looked into the strike rate of horses that won on a Heavy 10 and ran on Soft 5 or better next start. It was less than 8 per cent.
COSMONOVA went back and tried to come around them on a day where you wanted to go through them yet she still finished 3rd in the BM78 – the best rated race all day relative to class expectations. She’ll go close next start.
Jake Bayliss jumped off TOWN CRIER after he was unplaced in the BM85 1200m contest at Eagle Farm saying the Good 3 track was too firm.
SHOT OF WHISKEY found an above average Class 4 and wasn’t too bad finishing 5th to OUROBOROS, who is relishing his new Queensland surrounds. Three of SHOT OF WHISKEY’s 4 wins have been on Soft ground – he might be another to improve in different conditions.
Back to the Gold Coast and MOONFLEET couldn’t get a crack at them in her 1400m event. She was held up on the fence halfway up the straight and had to come across 5 sets of heels to find clear space. That was her second-up run and both her wins have been third-up. Follow.
TAKE A BOW was disappointing as an odds on favourite in the BM65 1100m race. She was slow out and never in the hunt. Stewards noted she was “hampered” after the barriers opened. Could be worth a forgive if they bet a price next time but she’s proving to be her own worst enemy.
Things rounded out with IMA CAPRI at Wyong on Sunday. He was run off his feet in a fast tempo race and will improve on his 7th placing here.
The Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield was the main event last Saturday and TREASURETHE MOMENT produced a huge return, albeit with a couple of things in her favour. An inside run on a fast tempo is always an advantage but that advantage is exacerbated when the field lacks fitness. Still, this was her best fresh rating and second-best career rating. She beat standard time for open WFA G1 races, which is rare for a 4YO resuming in the spring. Big prep ahead but we’ve still got VIA SISTINA around 2L ahead for futures players.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.