In the spirit of transparency and in the interest of our sport, can racing administrators please extend the track rating system beyond a Heavy 10?
I’ve lost count how many times I’m sitting there trying to work out a track’s true rating when reviewing a raceday. What I can tell you, is we frequently race on tracks that are worse than their respective Heavy 10 rating. To clarify, I’m saying the surface is often a Heavy 11 or worse but it will appear in racebooks and future form guides as a Heavy 10.
Going into last Saturday’s Winx Stakes meeting at Randwick, we had Sydney’s premier trainer, Chris Waller, state “we shouldn’t be racing” after walking the track himself. That’s because at one point Randwick was worse than a Heavy 10. Thankfully, ATC curators did a terrific job and the track raced safely. But Waller’s comments, albeit perhaps with a level of self-interest, should be noted.
Waller can only speak from his point of view. And as an industry participant, he is entitled to one. Just my opinion but instead of saying “we shouldn’t be racing”, Waller should’ve spoken as the great trainer he is. His concern was simple – what will happen to my horse’s going forward if I race them on this surface? And that’s all he needed to say. It’s the concern of a trainer who cares about his stock and the owners paying the bills. That is his job. To say Waller was acting on self-interest is correct. But that doesn’t render his concern invalid. In fact, punters, owners and every racing enthusiast should appreciate a participant acting in this manner. Not all do.
Once horse welfare has been ticked off then next most important aspect of our industry is turnover. Without it, none of us eat. Faced with the decision of whether we get to see VIA SISTINA or higher turnover, the choice for our industry is simple. Sorry VIA. And what we know is that turnover is significantly higher on Saturdays. Fortunately, we got Saturday turnover and VIA SISTINA and boy, wasn’t she great! This was her peak first-up rating and the only horse that can thwart her Cox Plate defence is AELIANA. While VIA can go much higher than she did on Saturday, AELIANA’s Winx Stakes rating is pretty much on par with her ATC Derby romp. And when a horse picks up from where they left off, it often signals big things ahead.
Even though I’m certain he didn’t mind, the fact Waller had to walk Randwick himself is utterly ridiculous. How is it in 2025, while Tesla is making self-driving cars, we can’t tell our trainers exactly how wet a track is? The reason he walked it is because he feared the track was well beyond a Heavy 10 and it would ruin the spring campaign of his star gallopers.
Trainers have until 7.30am raceday to scratch a runner. After that, they can only scratch if the track condition changes. EG Heavy to Soft or Good to Soft, Soft to Heavy etc.
If a track is beyond a Heavy 10, there is no chance it will get into the Soft range. Talking to trainers, they are wary when a club puts out a Heavy 10 rating. Many scratch not wanting to jeopardise a horse’s prep thinking it could be worse than a 10. Often they could’ve raced without harming their campaign and contributed to turnover.
You see, extending the track rating system beyond a Heavy 10 isn’t about calling out bottomless tracks that could ruin a horse’s prep. It’s about making sure that a trainer knows a track is a genuine Heavy 10 and not something beyond. Those trainers won’t scratch, their owners might win some prizemoney and the horse will attract turnover providing revenue for the industry. That is how The Great Game works.
For Proven Thoroughbreds, the week began with not much going right for HEYOKA at Ipswich on Wednesday. She wasn’t the best away and in a fast run race clocked the best last 400m of the day. Follow her next time.
On Saturday ELLE HUDSON went to Randwick and set a very fast tempo going nearly 6L above standard through his first 1800m of the 2400m BM78 event. He gave a great sight kicking well into the straight but got tired late to finish 5th beaten 1.6L. His overall time was still 4L above standard proving to us he is up to this grade and beyond.
MOVER AND SHAKER did nothing on a bog track at Newcastle on Saturday so we’ll avoid similar conditions going forward.
Up at the Gold Coast, ZATANNA was brave in her BM65 running fourth over 1100m. She sat on a hot speed where they went just under 4L above standard through the first 500m. She likes the Poly track up there.
Group 1 racing heads to Caulfield this weekend with the running of the Memsie Stakes. Our veteran campaigner PRIVATE EYE was nominated on Monday but will be saved for the Tramway Stakes at Randwick the following Saturday. Mark Zahra has been booked for FANGIRL, who was scratched from the Winx Stakes and Craig Williams is riding MR BRIGHTSIDE. But I think the hardest to beat will be TOM KITTEN. His ratings have been on an upward spiral this year. Don’t be surprised if this is his best prep yet.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets. For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.