Saturday’s Flemington meeting unearthed two potential spring contenders.
Winter can be like walking a landmine-ridden country for punters. Morning dew stops our tracks from drying out making it tricky to bet pre-post even for the most astute.
But one thing no one can deny is almost every season without fail, at least one or two horses run times of Group 1 animals and that, together with residual fitness, can make an off-season formline the right one to follow into spring majors.
WITHOUT A FIGHT won a Group 3 Lord Mayors Cup and a Q22 in the winter of 2023 before becoming the first horse to win the coveted Cups double since ETHEREAL in 2001.
Last year GRINGOTTS won a Listed mile race at Doomben before winning The Big Dance on Melbourne Cup day and then the G1 George Ryder Stakes this autumn just gone.
Already this year, we’ve highlighted how good we think DELIUS (SIR DELIUS) could be after he smashed the clock in the G3 Chairmans Stakes. You can add to that list, SHE’S AN ARTIST, who won the Flemington closer last weekend.
She camped near an even tempo in a 3YO Open 1100m race up the famous straight. Things looked normal until the 400m when she let rip clocking 22.12 for her last two sections, the fastest of the day and more than 5L above standard. This indicates she is at least G3 level, most likely G2 level and its not hideous to suggest she could be mixing it with the elite in the spring. Nothing has got near the daughter of TRAPEZE ARTIST in her two runs to date with her combined winning margin almost 9L. She looks the perfect horse to target the old G2 Salinger Stakes on day one of the Melbourne Cup carnival.
Earlier in the day SPLASH BACK continued Grahame Begg’s amazing run. Visually she was stunning, the only horse to run on from back in the field. And that’s because the tempo was slow. But this mare has acceleration aplenty and no matter how that race was run, she was going to beat them. Only SHE’S AN ARTIST clocked a better last 200m on the day.
It was great to see ACCREDITED back in the winners’ circle in the final event at Randwick on Saturday. The big question going into his BM94 assignment over 1200m was how much the Sandown gut-buster took out of him? Perhaps the soft tempo helped him but his last 600m ranked 16th for the day and importantly for his immediate future, his last 200m was strong. I was worried he might have been flat after his previous start but the race shape suited and he was so well ridden by Nash Rawiller.
In the same race, Proven Thoroughbreds had COSMONOVA. She settled behind ACCREDITED but was equally as good as him in the run to the line. I note she clocked the 5th fastest last 1000m of the day, often indicative of a horse that is ready for further. Regardless of where Joe Pride places her, she is one you want to follow as her data is screaming peak run next start.
The talented BOARD MEMBER resumed at the Sunshine Coast on Sunday and not everything went smoothly. She featured in the stewards’ report after being crowded and laying out. But her task was always greater when the track hit the Soft 7 range as she is far superior on top of the ground. The market reacted accordingly and pushed her from $3.70 to $4.80. Watch for sharp improvement onto drier ground next run.
What a shame GERRINGONG was posted wide throughout the Listed Gai Waterhouse Classic at Ipswich. Those that read this article last week, would’ve snapped up the $5. It looked a great play when she firmed into $2.60. Alas, that is punting and we move on. This Saturday marks the final Group 1 of the season – Tatts Tiara. If you fancy an early flutter, I thought GRINZINGER BELLE could give them something to chase at $15. Some of these mares have been up for a while, plenty racing on testing tracks. But GRINZINGER BELLE comes here fresh, which is how she races best.
Nic Ashman is a form expert who has developed his own times rating system to assess races. He is the host of The Beaten Favourite podcast and appears on several other racing media outlets.
For a more detailed summary of the past weekend’s racing, you can listen to ‘The Monday Podcast’ episode by The Beaten Favourite HERE.