Where strike rates matter

Strike rates are an often-used barometer of success in racing but rarely reflect the true story.

You don’t have to be a statistician to know that the true value of a strike rate percentage is determined by the sample size….ie a small sample size diminishes any inferences made from a strike rate.

One area of racing where strike rates can be accurately applied is the record of sires over time because the data is often in the hundreds, if not thousands.

The most typical measurement for stallions is winners to starters.

Analysing the first three crops from a sire can provide reliable insight into their long-term potential.

The table below indicates that DEEP FIELD is well and truly in the conversation of Australia’s top tier stallions.

NB: To minimize skewing of percentages, only sires with a minimum of 200 starters in their first three seasons were surveyed.

*as of June 30 in third season

Yes, DEEP FIELD has been represented by big numbers (444 starters) but that only serves to increase the accuracy of the strike rate as the sample size is more scrutinized than say, SNITZEL, who only had 225 starters in his first three seasons.

And it’s been a fruitful week for DEEP FIELD with doubles at Warwick Farm and Geelong as well as a winner at Sha Tin.

Such results have him charging towards a record number of winners for a third season sire after setting a new Australian benchmark of 86 second season winners last year.

The DEEP FIELD x INTENSITY filly Proven Thoroughbreds purchased at this year’s Magic Millions January Sale has completed her first stint at the Eagle Farm stables of Steve O’Dea and Matt Hoysted and is currently spelling at Kolora Lodge.

“This is one horse that has really strengthened up and grown since we bought her. We were able to do a couple of short pieces of three-quarter pace work with her and she was straight up on the bridle and nice and balanced which is always a good sign.” O’Dea said.

Shares available from $2,636.36 + GST for 2.5%.